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by gpm 2 hours ago
The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though. Moreover we can be pretty confident that long-term the prices will obey wrights law and come down in cost significantly (from the pre-shortage prices) as we learn to produce them more efficiently.

LLM companies are valued as if they're going to have some enduring monopoly that they can extract money from... GLM-5.2 and similar models make that valuation very very questionable.

2 comments

> The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though.

No disagreement there, but it could easily last another 3 to 5 years which is a long time in tech terms.

> The ram/gpu shortage won't last forever though

Don't underestimate the markets ability to remain irrational

the companies which have the power to alleviate these shortages are the same companies who are profiting most from the shortage. scarcity is an asset, it's not irrational that a concentrated marked will produce more of that asset.
The solution for high prices is high prices.

If making RAM and SSDs is now cause for a 10 figure valuation, after enough time somebody will dive in.