[jollyllama]

> This is one of those "the internet is a fad, it'll never catch on" moments. EV's are here to stay. They're going to win. That's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention.

That's not clear at all from the long-term habits of American consumers. Why did Ford, GM, and Stellantis all cut EV investment and increase ICE investment in the last year then?

[Aromasin]

Short term buyer habits don't necessarily track technological progress - they tend to be resistent, then inertia is broken and consumers buy en-mass. Companies need to brunt to cost of innovation until the cost benefit analysis makes sense for consumers. Mobile phones were a passing fad for niche power users until companies threw so much money at them so they weren't, and we became reliant on carrying one. Same can be said for thousands of other products. Nobody used them until suddenly we all were.

We're seeing a moores-law-like improvement in electric cars and their power densities. If the American car manufacturers don't want to be a part of that progress, it's on them, but Asia and Europe will continue to innovate in that area and the US will be playing catch up because they're servicing what consumers want now, not what they will probably want in the future.

[bruce511]

Because they are focused on short term returns, not long-term strategy.

In the short term cutting r&d, killing off "not yet profitable" lines etc all lead to improved results this quarter. Who cares about 5 years, or 10 years from now?

If you look beyond the US then you see EV market share growing year on year. Yes, the US is resisting hard, but you can't hold back the tide forever.

Kodak invented digital photography, but kept going with film. In the end the world moved on, even if they didn't.

50 years from now ICE will be a niche market. And if US producers want to own that niche, well that's great. But it'll be a tiny fraction of what they are now.

[formerly_proven]

> 50 years from now ICE will be a niche market

EVs are roughly at two thirds market share in the largest car market of the world. The third largest market has them at 20%. Funnily enough, India (4th largest market) is slightly ahead of the US for EV adoption in passenger cars.

ICE cars will be a niche market much more rapidly than 50 years.

[formerly_proven]

The US is again exceptional insofar that it is actively pivoting to become a petrostate. Even petrostates have been trying for a while to not be petrostates any more, which could be telling for the US electorate but isn't.