[blakeb]

There are a lot of pieces, but I think this might be what he's getting at.

Between now and sometime possibly about a year from now, stocks are likely to go down much further than they already have. So stocks are a bad move right now. Reasons behind this are lack of credit due to all the deleveraging and lack of demand due to consumers scaling back their spending due to also being overextended and seeing their home and portfolio prices dropping as far as they already have. Home prices will continue to drop as well, for a multitude of reasons, one being that tons of people can't afford their payments--hence, we have too many homes worth too much.

The reason gold will hold up or go up, in his view, despite lack of extreme inflation, from what I can tell, is this: asset prices (stocks and homevalues) everywhere are falling. But the money's still floating around. This would normally lead to big deflation. But since governments are all going to be pumping cash into their economies by printing money, they'll offset the deflation and we'll end up about even. In a sense it's inflation--money will be valued less; but so will most assets such as homes and stocks. One big asset that won't be valued less is gold. As more people start seeing it this way, gold will go up and up.

I'd guess that around the time he's forecasting a stock trough is when he'd recommend moving a bunch of your portfolio back from gold into stocks.