[sho]

You may be right, and I certainly hope so!

But the question was about whether the Chinese labs will have fable-equivalence in 1 year. I am by no means some kind of insider, but knowing the vaguest outlines of what went into Mythos, they just can't do it. The compute is not there. The Chinese engineers are incredible, but they're not literal magicians.

Of course there could be something incredible to come out of left field and overturn the apple cart yet again, but that's speculation. It would be awesome, sure! But I wouldn't bet too heavily on it.

And FWIW - again, no disrespect at all to the Chinese engineers but I don't rate GLM5.2 as being even close to opus 4.6. It can hit a few benchmarks, sure, that's the top edge of the "jag". But filling in the rest of the capabilities - again, it takes compute and data the OSS labs just don't have, that anyone knows about at least.

[sho]

I'm going to leave my above comment for embarrassment/posterity, but since writing it I've driven GLM5.2 much more extensively and I take it back. 5.2 is surprisingly, even shockingly good. It seems MUCH better than when I tried it on day one, and I probably shouldn't have drawn solid conclusions from that as models often struggle a little on launch.

I take it all back, 5.2 is very much competitive with any Opus and Fable seems very much in reach if they can continue making these leaps. It seems ZAI has quite a lot more up their sleeve than I had surmised.

[linzhangrun]

And GLM-5 is built on DeepSeek V3 :)

There is still a lot of optimization left to squeeze out of LLMs.