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by zozbot234 4 hours ago
What's "exponential" about AI development? Model parameter counts? Anthropic doesn't publish those for their own models, last I checked. Datacenter buildouts? Water consumption per request? There just isn't enough evidence that AI smarts is growing all that much, once you account for the scaling of inputs. That's what OP probably means by "nonsensical hype".
1 comments
ben_w 2 hours ago
What's "exponential" about AI development?

The METR task-completion time horizons, for one.

https://metr.org/time-horizons/

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zozbot234 18 minutes ago
Lousy benchmark, they explicitly focus on the easiest tasks to automate for AI (i.e. heavily cherry picked outcomes) and it seems that they don't bother to test anything except just-released proprietary models.
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