[prepend]

There’s certainly luck involved, but it’s not random.

Why aren’t there more Elon Musks? It’s not like the universe just picks a rando every 1000 years and it’s Elon Musk now and Mansa Musa last time.

I think similarly, there are random elements but hiring is not random. People aren’t randomly successful or not. There are many factors, most based on individual decisions and group alignments, I think.

[cloche]

Imagine you have a coin-flipping tournament with a large number of people - perhaps even billions. 2 people face off in rounds and the winner advances. By the end someone will have won all their rounds. Is this person skilled or lucky?

[cyanydeez]

you have survivorship bias tinted glasses. 1000's of elons tried and failed to keep flipping the coin.