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by 0xy 41 days ago
Even if it fails, California has taken a multi billion dollar tax hit from all of the wealth flight as a result of this. Not to mention that those people may take jobs with them, straight to Florida or Texas or other friendlier states.

These taxes are an abject disaster everywhere they're tried. France tried it and it was extremely bad for them.

The cash raised from the tax is dwarfed by the wealth flight, every time.

Napkin math for just the people who have left already over 5 years show $50 billion in lost tax revenue. Probably far more in indirect losses (jobs, consumption, etc).

7 comments

You need to remember that the proponents of this kind of thing WANT rich assholes to leave. They consider that an environmental social improvement.
If you won't do anything about the wealth, the top 1%, or top 0.1% will own more and more, until they own everything. Literally. There is no other outcome possible
Over the last 100 years the wealthy have expanded their gap between themselves and everyone else AND poverty rates have become the lowest at any time in history.

Seems to me that the status quo is allowing billions of the poorest people to afford food, shelter and more.

When you contextualize it that way, your argument looks like jealousy. For your argument to make logical sense, you must show that the poor are worse off than they were 100 years ago. But that's completely false. Extreme poverty was almost eradicated completely in that time.

You've got the 2nd wealthiest man in the world who created a company that sells essential goods at margins between 0 and 5%, far lower than typical 30% margins in retail. The poor have benefited profoundly from this, as their buying power has never been better (not to mention the lifts in living standards, wages, etc).

Florida has never had an income tax. With few exceptions, most of its wealthy are retirees or heirs, who don't have much income anyway.

Texas does not have an income tax. Despite its century of oil wealth, it has fewer billionaires than CA or NY.

These states don't have income taxes because they're unpleasant places to live at the best of times and nobody would choose to live their if they had to pay income taxes.

Florida is an unpleasant place to live?
I actually think billionaire flight is a good thing. Billionaires do not contribute to their community. Sure some tax accountant and some security people will lose their jobs, but this not matter for regular folk.

If nothing else, billionaires flight is a positive thing.

I am hoping all the billionaires leave my Washington state as a result of the millionaire tax - it may become a normal state like Oregon.

And what about the jobs they take with them? Starbucks shifting corporate jobs to Tennessee is a pretty local and recent example.

The average Starbucks corporate worker is squarely middle class. Their job is leaving as a result of this rhetoric.

Starbucks HQ moving to Tennessee is not caused by WA state millionaire tax - Burito Boy was hired on August 2024 well before the millionaire tax was even envisioned. Part of his compensation is predicated on these costs savings - and these were part of Burrito Boy’s negotiations before he even signed up his employment contract. So this move has nothing to do with the millionaire tax.

And just to let you know- Starbucks is not that popular in Seattle. They have been closing stores right and left in Seattle to the point where I only know store that is open. Seattle is not missing them that much.

[edit some typos]

Aren’t those billionaires the founders and CEOs of all the tech companies in Silicon Valley? And the VC firms that get them off the ground.

Maybe it would be fine for them to leave, but I’m pretty sure you want their companies to stay.

Maybe not. 50% of the tech companies moving out of Silicon Valley would probably improve traffic, lower housing costs etc. I’m pretty sure the cities that host them enjoy the tax revenue they bring in.

A lot of people that work (and thus benefit) from these tech companies are from out of state. Local people have to put up with insane housing costs because of tech work.

In Seattle at least some of the tech work is receding already because of layoffs. Which started to lower housing costs: landlords are starting to give 4 or 6 weeks of free rent.

More of this please.

You need to install capital controls first.
California is not a country. States cannot install capital controls.
Yes, that's correct. I'm talking about the other examples mentioned in the post.
'Trickle down economics will start working any day now, do you really want to miss out on our billionaire trickle?'

Leaving California means stepping away from the highest concentration of billion-dollar outcome creation in the U.S. Over the past ~40 years, California has produced on the order of ~120–200 billionaire-producing startups, versus ~15–35 in Texas and ~10–25 in Florida, depending on how you define origin.

Using standard venture-style risk and reward thinking, the data favors staying. The distribution of extreme upside outcomes remains heavily concentrated in California. Now if your a done/finished investor/creator or you have to be cost conscious it makes sense to leave the dream state and move to the retirement home states that cater to the has been class versus the creator class. No shame in having to be cost conscious or being ready to give up and fade into the retirement home of states lifestyle.

If you think a few billionaires moving to other states would take the Silicon Valley with them and it would be easy then let's see it play out.
Starbucks is shifting corporate jobs from Washington state to Tennessee as a result of this rhetoric. Chicago's financial industry was famously carved out due to the same kind of rhetoric, with Citadel moving to Florida, causing massive damage to the city and a huge financial hole (the city can barely fund the CTA, and it nearly collapsed in 2025).

You sure showed those billionaires by destroying the jobs of thousands of middle class workers and losing out on the tax revenue that was funding public transit and critical infrastructure. Nice!

You ought to link those things together a little better. The CTA propped up by a single finance firm???? Cmon