[bluegatty]

Africa is less important to extra-regional critical mass effects because of less access to internet, significantly lower income / advertising opportunity, and social and political influence (news tends to travel one way) and not a lot of integration of material concerns with France (individuals may have relations, but not a ton of business, entertainment etc.) - although the 'Football Factor' obviously looms large.

English wins because many people speak it and most people with influence do as well.

All of that will probably evolve a bit by 2050 but probably not enough to move the needle.

India and Philippines with huge numbers of English speakers will probably bulwark 'English as the Commons'.