[burnerRhodov3]

2025 revenue, $18.7B. 2026 revenue is going to be ~$60B+ with the neocloud deals. Profit margins are going to be around 60%. 300% growth in a year and improving profit margins from a negative number to a $40B in profit in one year is... wild.

Plus, terafab and merging with Tesla is a pretty big forward looking narrative.

Arbing tokens instead of selling them to the consumer turned out the be the better business model. Turns out you don't need to have a frontier model and is actually the worse business model and letting everyone else burn the energy to compete.

[petilon]

Neocloud is a low margin business. SpaceX has no advantage over competitors such as Oracle, Microsoft, AWS and others. Renting out hardware purchased from Nvidia will give them 15% profit margin. Terafab does not have any advantage over TSMC. TSMC has massive economy of scale and mature supply chain.

In short, there is nothing to explain the massive overpricing of SpaceX stock, it will come down to earth at some point. Don't be left holding the bag at that point.

[burnerRhodov3]

$2.5B a month for a $12B (collosus 1) buildout is very high margin? Electricity is about 15% of opex... Microsoft and Amazon are able to strong arm Open AI and Anthropic into giving up huge chunks of equity for their neoclouds, and have also made hundreds of $B's once they IPO? Coreweave is projecting $30B in CapEx to fulfill $99B in annual rev.

Where are you getting the 15% margin from? Can you provide any sources where thats the case? Because all the neo clouds are making insane amounts of money from what i can see.

Also, Terrafab is not about margin but access. TSMC is perpetually booked out for 2-3 years in advance.