[dofm]

> If the polls are to be believed, the UK is likely to be ruled by a far-right party after the next general election.

If the most recent actual election of a candidate is to be believed, Reform cannot even take a high stakes scalp in the easiest possible context — a totally unnecessary, frankly engineered election designed to solve the Labour leadership crisis.

Even in that absolutely fucking farcical, facially offensive, wasteful context, voters still managed to organise themselves to conclusively keep out the one candidate who they could have used to give the government a kicking.

So I am less worried than I was. Reform have always had the biggest hill to climb in political history to get enough candidates to form a majority; it will be desperately hard work.

And now I think they have much less of a chance of doing it. Makerfield was a test they failed unambiguously, and partly this is because they have already split on the right. They really, really wanted it, and they failed.

[flatIronSteak]

I don't think you can base your prediction of the next general election on a single local election for a constituency that has been a labour stronghold since its inception in 1983.

Like it or not, the polls are scary, and they're predicting something that is possible. The incumbent government should be bearing that in mind when making decisions.

[dofm]

I don't think "a Labour stronghold since its inception in 1983" has anything to do with that outcome. It simply wasn't an ordinary by-election.

(And I don't think you can use council election numbers as a way to predict a parliamentary majority; it doesn't really work that way.)

Labour strongholds in that area have fallen to Reform, and Reform and Restore both put a lot into that race.

Winning it is the most important thing Reform could have done, and they had the biggest possible chance to see the electorate use a vote for them as a kick in the face to the Labour party.

(A kick in the face I believe they richly deserved for trying the whole idea in the first place; it is staggeringly obtuse to force a constituency election to solve an internal party problem.)

Literally a once-in-a-generation chance to deliver a blow to the unity of the governing party. Nothing like it in 30 years. They put a lot into it and they didn't win it.

Now see how they will have to do better in 320-odd constituencies with different local issues. Can they find 320 candidates that the locals won't loathe or organise against?

A Reform outright majority is only barely possible on a technical level; it's just an enormous challenge (and if they do achieve it, to be clear, I think the country will be in a kind of existential terror for generations).

They will be the official opposition; that much is in no doubt. But it's a personality cult party and I think there's pretty strong evidence (from Restore's share) that the personality cult is wearing off.

And the country that was beginning to despair has just been shown, unambiguously, that tactical voting can keep them out. Which is something many constituencies knew in 2024, mine among them.

So as angry as I am that Makerfield happened at all (it's a bit of an outrageous farce, really), I am a little more optimistic.