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by belorn 2 days ago
Time will tell. I find it very unlikely that other nations will do nothing if nations and companies start to actually pay Iran money. If Iran get money, then the harbor that the Iranian ship goes to also want a cut, and any strait on the way also want their cut, and then why not just demand a cut if they happen to sail by in range of a military ship. Ships are by nature fairly vulnerable to be intercepted, boarded and cargo confiscated. Historically, from around 1300 to 19th century, shipping companies had to have their own army and cannons on board in order to safe guard cargo on the oceans. One could argue that the current period of international peace on the oceans was an abnormality and we are now returning back to normality.
1 comments

It seems more likely that the Strait of Hormuz is just in the possession of Iran without grander implications for maritime trade.

What would other countries do? If the US's military might is powerless to control Iran, what chance would any other country have here?

Trump's weakness in giving up the illusion of US power certainly would be a disaster for the US, and world trade, but broader implications seem unlikely.

What can Iran do if other countries consider Iranian ship as free for the taking as retaliation for Iran attacking ships in the strait of hormuz?

What would Australia do if Iran attacked their embassy? They would kick them out, denying Iran an embassy in Australia. When it comes to this stuff, a tit for tat strategy is generally the common tactic. If you attack peaceful trade ships, then your own trade ships is valid target for retaliation. If you start to threaten ships with ransoms, other nations will do the same.

Invading Iran is a complete different subject compared to boarding trading ships well outside the border of Iran. Historically, a Letter of marque was a very cheap way to manage countries which did not respect your own ships. Some laws are still in the law books regarding how to deal with prize ships, which illustrate how close we are to the time where peaceful traversal of waters was not a given.

One of the biggest trade partner for Iran is China. Will China pay the toll? Will Iran attack their ships? Will China retaliate if they do? If China do not need to pay the toll, which other countries would then be willing to one-sided pay for access to the strait?

> What can Iran do if other countries consider Iranian ship as free for the taking as retaliation for Iran attacking ships in the strait of hormuz?

This is exactly what Trump tried. The US was boarding Iranian ships thousands of kilometers away. In the end the US still backed down and agreed to an Iranian toll in the MoU.

Iranian ships have been getting boarded for extremely flimsy reasons for over ten years now. That forced them to adapt to it in such a way that they are now far more resilient to it than the rest of the world is.