[testaburger]

Is spaceX absolutely vital for the US national security through Starlink as well as the launch of military satellites? Yes, and as a matter of fact this is also true for NATO allies, Japan, Taiwan, SK, etc in any future conflict for at least the next 5 to 10 years, just as it has been for the past 4 years in Ukraine. In addition to land based infrastructure that can be targeted in any future war -undersea cables are now under constant threat around the world (Baltic Sea, Straight of Hormuz, Red Sea, South China Sea, and the Taiwan Straight, etc). Which leaves Starlink as the last resort option should shit hit the fan.

Note the tide has changed considerably in the Ukraine war in Ukraine's favor once Starlink locked down access - this proves how vital internet access it was to both sides, as once Russia could no longer use stolen terminals their manpower advantage became moot.

So I simply don't get this manufactured outrage - the vast majority of US retirement savings are already tied to the military sector (RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman) via index funds. I personally would have more concern with those laggards in the new age of drone warfare vs the likes of SpaceX and Anduril (when they ipo).

[overfeed]

> the Ukraine war in Ukraine's favor once starlink locked down access

I think this is coincidental correlation. In the same period drone warfare was evolving until it reached some stalemate with an optic-fiber strewn killzone where none of the belligerents have an upper hand, and Ukraine's ballistic missile industry picked up pace, allowing Ukraine to hit far into Russia without relying on American long-range munitions, or needing American permission to use those munitions.

[Gud]

Many of the long range drones use starlink terminals.

The deep attacks inside Russia would be significantly more difficult without starlink.

[overfeed]

> The deep attacks inside Russia would be significantly more difficult without starlink

This is inaccurate: Starlink was geofenced to Ukrainian territory after Musk's World War III tweet. Deep strikes inside Russia are mostly missiles, but not even the deep-strike drones can use Starlink due to geofencing.

[burnerRhodov3]

Starlink can't, but Starshield can.

[nradov]

The US national security depends far more on the separate but related Starshield constellation than on Starlink. Your general point is correct though in that widespread use of high-bandwidth, low-latency satellite communications has caused another revolution in military affairs on the same level as GPS and precision guided munitions. SpaceX might be overvalued but politically it's too big to fail.

[gedy]

> the vast majority of US retirement savings are already tied to the military sector (RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman) via index funds

I don't hear any concern about SpaceX due to military ties, it's that it seems like financial tricks are being used and forcing it into the markets and it might be seriously unstable.

[LastTrain]

If it is vital then that is a national security concern that it is under the control of a single person.

[lokar]

It’s the absurd governance and obvious manipulation of inclusion rules and limited float.

[tw04]

So what you’re trying to imply is they have leverage to hold the US public hostage both via military contracts and retirement savings, and nobody should be concerned?

Their current valuation makes absolutely no sense given the size of their business and the next century of business unless they’re going to pull the rug on the US and its allies and increase costs 100x.

[shimman]

If SpaceX is vital then we need to nationalize the company and have it under democratic control, not under a dictatorship of one.

[danny_codes]

> The vast majority of US retirement savings are already tied to the military sector

The defense sector is 2% of the stock market. So if by majority you mean 2%, then that's a reasonable statement.

[mylifeandtimes]

So let's assume you are right.

Does that justify the price?

Spacex price/sales: 100x-130x

RTX Corporation's (formerly Raytheon Technologies) Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio currently hovers around 2.74 to 2.76. Boeing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at 1.86, Lockheed Martin's (LMT) trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at 1.64. Northrop Grumman's current Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at approximately 1.76 to 1.89

So based on the peer comps you provided, SpaceX is overvalued by 50-100x. Your $185 shares are worth about $2.

Fine if you want to take that bet. Not fine if you force (via indexing) the majority of US pension savings to take that bet.

[awesome_dude]

Is it *vital*

No.

It's really helpful, but it's not vital.

WRT Ukraine - the drones are now (AIUI) flown with a tethered fibre connection (inside the Ukraine) - because jammers have made radio traffic with drones near impossible for operators

[nradov]

Nope. The fiber optic drones are relatively short range, maybe up to 20km. And they can only work over land, not significant bodies of water. Ukraine is still using Starlink heavily for controlling longer range and naval drones. Starlink uses an ingenious phased array antenna system which makes it highly resistant to jamming. Recently Russia has been trying to overload Starlink satellite transceivers with powerful directional jamming but the huge size of the constellation limits how many birds they can effectively target.

[diydsp]

Vast majority?

The combined market cap of those four companies is maybe $500-600 billion combined. The total S&P 500 market cap is roughly $45-50 trillion.

So defense contractors represent maybe 1-1.5% of a typical index fund portfolio.

[numpad0]

Doesn't it feel like Falcon 9 is destined to be spun off so that adults can take care of it, and then X Corp is to be allowed to consolidate freely for a quick and easy disposal?

[aftbit]

SpaceX is not "vital" for national security. It's a powerful tool, but it's not vital. And in any true peer conflict involving the US, Starlink satellites would also prove vulnerable just like undersea cables.