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by jmyeet 4 days ago
If this was obvious to some random guy like me at least two months ago [1][2] without access to intelligence community information and military assessments then this should surprise absolutely no one in the administration. I said then and have been vindicated (IMHO): this will go down as the largest strategic blunder in US history. It's also going to reshape the region away from US influence because of the hollowness of US security guarantees. The GCC are going to have to deal with Iran as a fellow oil-producing nation. A big loser here is the UAE and I'm not sure that Dubai ever recovers.

Before all of this, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz was a theory that was never tested. Traffic passed freely. But a war was forced upon them by the US and Israel so if any of these countries (or anyone else for that matter) is unhappy at the outcome, you know where to point the finger.

One irony in all this is that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea would guarantee free transit passage through territorial waters like the Strait of Hormuz. Iran isn't a signatory. The ironic part is that the United States isn't either.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47944212

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47937691
2 comments
symian 4 days ago
People used to jokingly say that the way to prosperity is for the U.S. to defeat you in a war. Soon people will jokingly say the way to prosperity is for you to defeat the U.S. in a war. The sequel to The Mouse that Roared is The Lion that Squeaked.
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ChoGGi 4 days ago
> you know where to point the finger.

Greenland, Cuba, or Canada?

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Freedom2 4 days ago
Some HNers will unironically blame the Democrats.
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jmyeet 4 days ago
Maybe I'm misreading this. Tone and particularly sarcasm can be lost in text. But I think that comment you're responding to was making fun of the administration.

One thing this administration is not known for is taking accountability and admitting they made a massive error. No, it'll be someone else's fault so we'll move on to whoever the next bogeyman is. And it can't be China because the US just objectively lost a war with Iran. You think we're going to win a war with China? No. What we really need is a tune-up fight. A bit like how Reagan invaded Grenada two days after the Beiruit bombing that ultimately led to US withdrawal from Lebanon.

This was basically soothing our hurt feelings by using the US miltiary, the largest in the world, to invade a Sandals resort.

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