| I can't believe I just read that entire thing... I feel as though the trajectory of technological advancement and "Taleb's" personal vision of the future are two seperate things and he is unable to acknowledge that fact. He is let down because reality isn't living up to his idea of what he thinks reality should be... There are far too many points to refute.. Shoes look no different than they did 3500 years ago because they serve a purpose. Once a technology serves a purpose, there is no need to improve that purpose, unless said technology is to be used in another setting which requires change or improvement... Hence sandals, flip-flops, sneakers, skateboarding shoes, high heels, rollerblades, iceskates, snowshoes. I think author touched on this, kind of... You get my point... Chairs are the same as they were because panda's aren't sitting in chairs. People are sitting in chairs, and people haven't physically changed since the inception of chairs. So a device that humans use for sitting is not likely to change... But wait, what about lounging chairs, or baby chairs, or high chairs, or stools? I'm sure if a fish needed a chair, it would look like a bed... Technology is the instantiation of idea's into physicality. This is done for any number of reasons, most of which to solve some type of rudimentary problem. Some become extrusions of ourselves. Human beings are limited in MANY ways, but we are able to identify the limitations and problem solve through technological means. For example, an iPhone is an extreme technological extrusion, not just a device. Think about a text message. Bear with me here... A thought you have makes it's way from being a mere THOUGHT, to then being processed by LANGUAGE, which is processed to WRITTEN LANGUAGE, which is expressed through typing on a KEYBOARD, on a TOUCH SCREEN DISPLAY, on a WIRELESS MOBILE DEVICE, and then SENT THROUGH THE AIR to someone else's WIRELESS MOBILE DEVICE, to be READ, PROCESSED, and your thought implanted in that persons mind. No words were used here. Just transference of thoughts through technological means. Look at a car... Metal exoskeleton with wheels that can change it's rate of speed at will. Another technological extrusion of yourself. Without you driving, the car doesn't do shit. Try explaining that to the shoe person 3500 years ago, or your fork friend, or someone even a mere 150 years ago... "Yeah man, instead of walking in 3500 years you'll get into a 2500lb metal box with rubber wrapped wheels filled with air that burns a a flammable liquid in another metal box of moving parts and listens to commands your right foot gives it!" The internet has allowed people to have access to a network of information no other period in known history has ever had. The library of Alexandria MAY have contained similar amounts of knowledge, but it was in a centralized location that required your physical presence. The internet itself isn't changing the technological landscape, but the access to information the internet provides is. The rate at which thoughts/ideas are physically instantiated is increasing rapidly, as more tools are created by more people having more access to other tools, etc... In short, what I gathered from this piece is that people should give up looking forward, and be happy right where they are, because our prediction skills suck and change is scary and doesn't always have the best outcome... I'm sure glad pre-bigbang conditions didn't feel the same way. Or the primordial soup. Or Einstein. Or Edwin Hubble. Or Carl Sagan. Or Nikola Tesla. Or anyone who's ever had an idea and executed it for that matter. =============================== TL;DR Technologies are idea's that solve problems. The future is unpredictable. Problems of an unpredictable future are also unpredictable. Hence, why people are shit predictors of the future technological climate. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try. |