[JumpCrisscross]

> everyone has the same (extremely low) odds

In the author’s example, Replit has a very high chance of making a profit on those folks’ desperation.

It’s not exactly an MLM. But the predatory mechanism is close. Loan sharking might be a more exact analog for the financial bit, but the social-media marketing strikes closer to MLMs.

[satvikpendem]

It's similar to dating app companies selling to young desperate men, although these companies have much more insidious tactics (sending you a match right when they predict you might give up on the app) than e.g. Replit who have still not fully figured out how to hook users just enough to continue to get them to pay (not sure, though, how they can give you a hit app right before you give up on them).

[bawolff]

I think the standard analogy would be selling shovels to the gold miners.

[JumpCrisscross]

> standard analogy would be selling shovels to the gold miners

There was actually gold in the California hills. Nobody is starting a business the way the Replit ads seems to be pitching.

This one’s a simple pump and dump before the attorneys general get wiser.

[bawolff]

I'm sure someone somewhere at some point has made some money on replit. There is always an outlier.

Keep in mind the vast majority of gold miners found no gold.

[JumpCrisscross]

> the vast majority of gold miners found no gold

Source? We would do panhandling trips as Boy Scouts in the California hills. On each outing at least someone found gold. Which means every one of us would have eventually found some given a few days.

Most panhandlers didn’t break even. But I’m challenging even that threshold for Replit. I’m guessing most of their vibe-coded businesses never make a penny of revenue.