[throwway120385]

The value of employee equity is approximately zero, but sometimes people get lucky. Don't let these arguments fool you into thinking you're definitely in that 5%, because in the absence of information about the market, the product, and the other people you're working with you're probably in that 95% that makes nothing. By all means update your priors but arguments about expected value assume that all things are equal, and they are manifestly not equal.

[vanuatu]

the article takes this into account with EV

obviously vol is not the end all be all but one of your main advantages as a startup employee is access to the insider info and being able to walk away