[johnvanommen]

> A lot of industries got bitten by greed and the sudden deflation of demand and huge unsold inventory post COVID.

I’m betting that the world is about to hit a wall of inflation.

https://i.ibb.co/s9Mm8w2r/IMG-0743.jpg

This is a graph I made.

It shows:

* the inflation rate from 1971 until 1991

* the inflation rate from the start of COVID 19 until today.

Does anyone notice anything interesting about the graph?

[dehrmann]

> Does anyone notice anything interesting about the graph?

Cherrypicked dates? But I'd like to hear analysis comparing the Nixon shock to the covid shock since one was monetary and one was supply and demand.

[johnvanommen]

> Cherrypicked dates? But I'd like to hear analysis comparing the Nixon shock to the covid shock since one was monetary and one was supply and demand.

Of course!

* In 1971 and 2019, the M2 money supply was flooded. In 1971 by the Nixon Shock, in 2019 by Covid: The amount of US dollars that existed between 1961 and 1971 increased by 100%, the amount of US dollars that existed between 1971 and 1981 increased by 253%. Assets are denominated in dollars and the flood of money that the Nixon Shock caused led to the inflation of the late 70s and 80s. The flood of money that Covid caused led to the inflation of the last six years, 2022 in particular.

* The other factor that contributed was the lack of oil supply. In the 1970s, it was caused by a war in the Middle east. Will we see history repeat again? My bet is yes.

Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Note that the Fed data is difficult to read in the 70s, you'll want to play around with the length of the time window. It's difficult to read because the supply of money has grown so much.

[Jblx2]

You can tell that a chart is authoritative when it economizes on pixels?