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by koe123 7 days ago
So, what your saying is that there is a perhaps linear, perhaps exponential increase, and that you are projecting that increase forward indefinitely. Let me know if this is unfair.

Counter argument: does anything else work this way? E.g. Moores law had an end too right? I would argue that the core tech breakthrough (Transformer-based LLM) has been improved, but no fundamental further innovation seems to have been made. The current architecture fundamentally hallucinates, even Fabel even on trivial problems. I.e. as number tokens increase error likelihood goes to infinity. How then, can this scale recursively to infinity?
1 comments
lionheart 7 days ago
Not indefinitely but at least to the point where they’re smarter than humans.
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yorwba 6 days ago
The singularity usually refers to the idea that although the rate of relative improvement of a technology is approximately constant at a constant (human) intelligence level ([dy/dt]/y ≈ c), producing exponential growth, if said constant were actually proportional to intelligence and the technology under improvement being intelligence itself ([dy/dt]/y ≈ cy), then solving the differential equation leads to a blow-up to infinity in finite time, a mathematical singularity.

If instead additional intelligence does little to speed up AI development (due to the need for other inputs like caputal and time), you could get a world where AI becomes better than humans at AI development and begins a cycle of recursive self-improvement without explosive growth leading to a singularity.

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fuzzfactor 6 days ago
That's a pretty good concept and you could say there is a fairly wide gap between your everyday singularity and the ultimate singularity.

Which seems to me likely the result of an unforeseen variable or variables, and that's got to have outsized, uncharacterized, and unexpected importance to have such a strong effect.

When the overwhelming consensus is that wonderful things are waiting just around the corner, it still could turn out to be just the opposite and you'll never know until you actually turn the corner.

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