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by oa335 6 days ago
"Our most likely estimate is that replacement costs are approximately $91 billion. Military and strategic assets — nuclear facilities, missile and drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels, and air defense systems — make up roughly half that total, at approximately $46 billion, which is equivalent to 4-6 years of Iran’s pre-war defense budget"

How exactly did they arrive at this estimate? I would like to see a building-by-building breakdown, or at least a methodology. Feels very vibe-researched tbh.

1 comments

You could get to a pretty good figure by assuming the Iranians know they can ask for at least twice as much. Three times as much isn't even pushing it.
More is probably better for Trump if it's larger because it's more padding through which the deal can be engineered that "such and such" [friend/proxy of Trump] has to be destination company/supplier of reparations materials or other self-dealing benefits.
Exactly (I made just this point with a bit less clarity than yours, in another comment)