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by palmotea 5 days ago
> Yes, predicting the future was never possible.

True, but...

> In fact, for most of the time in human history, the future looked incredibly bleak.

No, the rate of change was slow enough that you could probably make a good-enough prediction: your life would be similar to that of your father's or grandfathers'.

The problem is that nowadays, some foolish technology-worshiping assholes have pushed the rate of change faster than almost anyone can handle: before we've started to learn to deal with the problems of one technology, another technology disrupts everything again. Society needs to operate at a human scale, and a human speed, or it will kill itself.

2 comments

> > In fact, for most of the time in human history, the future looked incredibly bleak.

> No, the rate of change was slow enough that you could probably make a good-enough prediction: your life would be similar to that of your father's or grandfathers'.

You are not contradicting the quotation.

You could, as you say, probably make a good-enough prediction: your life would be similar to that of your father's or grandfathers'.

That prediction would be "Just like my parents and grandparents, I live in a cold rotting wooden shack, my entire family have to share a single bed to stay warm, I am only one step up from being my landlord's slave, and this will also be the life of my kids and grandkids".

Yeah.

And it's worth noting (because I'm sure some "clever" software engineer is going to quote Socrates thinking its some kind of mic drop or something), that I'm not saying change all the sudden got too fast just recently. It's probably been like that for awhile (e.g. since the 70s or before).

I thi k the 70s was when they saw "oh hey this is gonna be bad" and now we're there.