[swatcoder]

Sure, but it's also not really out of scale with the cost of a shop tool in other trades.

If you're a professional that's confident in a positive return on the investment (optimal or not), or just a hobbyist with the luxury budget for a "shop" that cost is well within norms.

That's not everybody, of course, but it's not some inconceivable fantasy. A lot of people in the tech community here on HN, specifically, end up with pretty high discretionary budgets that they pour into stuff like this.

[frollogaston]

But you can get that return from a paid service too, in fact it'll be better. So just comparing costs, what's the annualized ROI on the Mac Studio assuming it means you avoid paying $240/y for Claude? Cause I can always set aside the Mac's price in some investments and pay for Claude out of that.

[swatcoder]

Same with many and their shop tools in other trades.

Most hobbyists and many professionals could end up far ahead financially by leveraging makerspaces, tool rentals, and co-op shops or even by hiring out a professional to prep certain intermediates for them, but they get psychological value -- as well as flexibility, reliability, and resale opportunity -- from having their own well-outfitted shop.

And they can afford that premium, so they do. At the scale of individuals and small shops, not everything that matters gets captured in financial models.

[frollogaston]

Yeah but the local model doesn't have those advantages for the coding use cases, at least not yet. In theory you could post-train one on your codebase or something, but nobody cares to do that when any vanilla coding agent service can read and understand the whole thing better than a locally tuned free model. I was already being very generous towards the Mac in pretending it does the same thing as the paid service.

Aside, physical tools tend to be financially advantageous to own if you're going to use them a lot. Even if the owner were targeting 0 profit, they'd have to charge more to factor in the cost of dealing with customers and increased risk of wear/damage by users who don't care as much.

[swatcoder]

The shifting sands of commercial models or pay-per-use managed models are just really not appealing to a lot of people.

Most come with huge privacy concerns, total costs and availability are impossible to forecast very far out, and the specific behavior of frontier models in particular is not something anybody can rely on as those are subscription products that are subject behavior on their publisher's whims (whether from changing system prompts, new "safeguards", retired models, forced "updates", new regulations, etc).

It's quite hard to put a price on all that, and as more people find local models productive enough or develop curiosity to explore models, training, or harness-crafting in their own ways, the marginal cost of buying some shop hardware just sort of disappears into the budget noise for plenty enough people.