[InsideOutSanta]

> In fact, for most of the time in human history, the future looked incredibly bleak

In the past, this was a reason to have children, because you needed somebody to help out and look after you when you were old. Now, it's a reason not to have children, because you're putting people into a world knowing that there is a non-trivial probability that they will suffer all their lives through wars, famine, social unrest, and other man-made disasters.

[vel0city]

> you needed somebody to help out and look after you when you were old

Even with social programs in society, this still hasn't gone away. This is still kind of a reason to have kids, and for your siblings to have kids, and have family networks grow to help support each other.

> you're putting people into a world knowing that there is a non-trivial probability that they will suffer all their lives through wars, famine, social unrest, and other man-made disasters

Once again, all of this has also been true for all of human history. Other than a brief moment for the northwestern part of the world for wealtheir people in the 90s-maybe 00s, this has just been the normal state of affairs. Life has always had suffering involved.

[cm2012]

But a lower probability than ever before in human history of those things

[devin]

Climate change would like a word.

[cm2012]

If you think that you're simply incorrect. For the average person in a Western country, life is dramatically better anytime in the next hundred years, including the worst possible outcomes of climate change. Not to mention that the exponential growth of solar panels is basically stabilized in climate right now.

[ben_w]

Mostly agree, but:

> Not to mention that the exponential growth of solar panels is basically stabilized in climate right now.

Sadly, growth of PV can only deal with part of the problem. We're making PV fast enough now that, given panel lifetimes, in 30 years 100% of current electricity demand will be met with specifically PV, and we're also making wind turbines and nuclear reactors and stuff.

The "and also" means we'll probably also be fine electrifying land transport.

Air transport (also fast-and-reliable sea transport) is somewhat harder to make renewable, but theoretically possible. Metal extraction from ore can be done electrolytically.

Concrete's not limited by electricity, it's an independent thing to be solved. So is meat farming. Progress exists on these, yes, but my point is they're not solved just by us being on the home stretch for electricity.

[vitally3643]

I don't think your "worst possible" case is calibrated correctly.

The worst possible case is global famine and food chain collapse. Food wars, water riots. Starvation in the literal billions.

Living in a Western country won't solve the problems of "crops can't grow anymore" or "keystone species in the food chain are extinct". We'll starve and die in mass numbers just like everyone else.

[cm2012]

Even if we had billions dead from starvation worldwide (huge if), life in a western country in 2060 will be better than life for almost anyone born in 1800 anywhere on earth.

[littlexsparkee]

That QoL is dependent on resource extraction from developing countries - if they crash, so do we.

[gottorf]

More people will suffer and die over the next 50-100 years from efforts to counteract climate change than from climate change itself.

[rwyinuse]

"In the past, this was a reason to have children, because you needed somebody to help out and look after you when you were old"

I live in what is supposedly one of the happiest, wealthiest countries in the world, and even here few people trust the healthcare system to take care of them when they're old. My grandpa would have almost certainly died years ago if he had no children to look after him.

It's still valid, if selfish reason to have children.