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by drakythe 42 days ago
The saying "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" exists for a reason.

In short, the answer to your literal question is "no" because nothing remains forever in this world. The practical answer is "yes" because the TSLA stock has been irrational for years already and it shows no sign of stopping.
3 comments
georgeecollins 42 days ago
Or the way I would think about it is (I think this was a Krushchev quote): You don't convince people there is no imaginary river, you convince people that you built an imaginary bridge across the imaginary river.

So you are never going to convince people that Tesla won't make a fortune on humanoid robots or SpaceX won't colonize Mars. The fever will break when people decide flying robots (or whatever) are a bigger business then humanoid robots or some other company than Space X will colonize the ocean before Mars. You aren't going to convince people to price these things reasonably but eventually the heat will wear off.

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runarberg 42 days ago
That saying assumes a rational market, and while there is some evidence that the average human behavior trends towards the rational there are plenty of evidence against individual behavior being rational (see homo economicus).

As more and more wealth get distrubuted to fewer and fewer hands, and as fewer and fewer extremely rich individuals control more and more of the market, My gut feeling is that if the market was ever rational (which btw. I am not entirely convinced of) that very much no longer holds true.

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grey-area 42 days ago
In the short term it’s a voting machine, in the long term it’s a weighing machine (Ben Graham).

The current episode of irrational exuberance will pass, as others have.

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runarberg 42 days ago
The before ones have had outside influence which forces the irrational episodes to pass. A spectacular collapse is usually fallowed by mass protests and labor actions, strikes etc. which forces the market to change its behavior. Most of the time these will result in a change in government policy which imposes regulation onto the market, and only then does the market go back to being rational.
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w10-1 42 days ago
> exists for a reason

The reason is that people keep making the same mistake, because people are not very good at assessing high-risk, high-reward projects.

Only a real deadline/delivery failure can wake people up, and only if they haven't pivoted their dream to something else, and only if you don't have other people knowing it's a scam, but willing to prop up the stock price because they are highly invested.

Scams, like cancer, are real; they survive, grow and defend themselves using the same mechanisms (laws, advisors, promotors) as ordinary investments/tissue, until they kill the patient -- so the best scams target the largest unkillable patients and enlist the broadest and deepest range of self-interested insiders as their defense.

It's beautiful, if you really think about it, as a tragic example of the worst of capitalism.

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