[yanis_t]

$60b is crazy.

Cursor is an extension for VS Code, a harness and a bunch of prompts.

They have their own model (Composer 2) which is based Kimi K2.5, but I don't think SpaceX would be interested in it.

If they need a harness for grok, they could fork PI.

What are they after for here? Customer base? Talent?

[kjksf]

Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

That's not crazy because if past predicts the future, that revenue will grow quickly. At $8 billion/year it's just 7.5 years, which is a reasonable investment.

[acc_297]

This is a linear regression relying on a couple years of data to predict 15 years in the future and I don't believe that the valuation is made on this basis.

It may be that spaceX is buying an operation that would realistically take 5 months and 100 million to copy in-house for 60B because the worry is that waiting 5 months might cost that much in some sort of lost opportunity. It also might be that in any negotiation SpaceX is viewed as incredibly cash-rich and so anything can be sold to them for inflated prices.

I really don't understand these companies valuations it seems like boardrooms everywhere are in a constant state of panic that they'll lose it all if they aren't growing a breakneck pace constantly.

[potatototoo99]

Not annual, annualized. Let's see if people stick to it knowing it belongs to Musk now.

[0xy]

Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before, and Bluesky is continuing to rapidly decline (-5% DAUs per quarter).

I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).

[disgruntledphd2]

> I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).

In terms of the stock market, definitely. Honestly though, all those people who said self-driving wouldn't be solved by now, that Tesla didn't have a great moat and that the Boring Company was profoundly stupid were in fact correct.

[lordgrenville]

> Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before, and Bluesky is continuing to rapidly decline

Not at all correct, they are plummeting.

"In June 2025...X year-over-year growth declined by 15.2%." https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/07/threads-is-nearing-xs-dail...

[mike_bob]

Yup, more activity... Elon never solved the bot problem like he promised, and it's far worse now.

[6510]

I looked the other day, the feed got the same 4 postings reposted 3-5 times. A dozen posts talking about people getting banned, doxed and fired for talking about you know what.

I found 1-2 sort of interesting posts but not interesting enough to make it worth it.

It was fun for a while blogging with grok back when it was free.

Kind of interesting that engagement is zero on all of my postings. Not that I care for it but it shows quality isn't measured by users. The system prefer people read about users getting banned and that same video again and again. lol

With rss I just sort by date and eliminate duplicates. Not very hard and dramatically more interesting.

[csomar]

Twitter did lose significant revenues. It came ahead on profit because it aggressively cut costs which is an interesting thing to do for Musk given SpaceX. Maybe he learned that profitability is over-rated?

[Capricorn2481]

> Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before

Where are you getting that? There's not a single piece of data out there that will tell you Twitter has increased in users. Not only have they visibly dropped in users, but it's becoming increasingly clear the site is Astroturfed with bots.

The choice is not Twitter or Bluesky. Most people moved on to TikTok. I don't know a single person who uses Twitter.

[jatora]

Tiktok... what are you talking about? Tiktok is not a text news/thread medium

[Capricorn2481]

Why would that be germane to the discussion? Are you under the impression people are hardwired to use specific kinds of social media?

The thread is about Twitter supposedly *growing* in size recently, and its only evidence was Bluesky's userbase. That's just silly. I know half a dozen people who left Twitter for TikTok. They don't care about the slight differences in these platforms, they are all algorithmically driven platforms where people comment under text and video. They care more about what audience is cultivated and what is forced on them.

[Rover222]

*jams head in sand angrily

[turtlesdown11]

> daily mobile users down 15% year-over-year

So just to be clear, down 15% YoY is not "more or less the same or higher activity"

the platform is overwhelmingly bots, so those "users" are likely in a server farm somewhere

https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/10/as-x-loses-its-ceo-daily-u...

Also, they reported a 60% drop in advertising revenue from 2021-2026... yikes

[bean469]

> Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

This assumes that Cursor's annual revenue will be the same or higher for over a decade. It's not really like they don't have competitors

[winter_blue]

That revenue number is almost meaningless, since they give out tokens at a loss. Especially with Composer 2.5 tokens are sold at a steep loss. They could certainly grow to $8 billion/year, with this negative revenue / heavily subsidized subs, but what will happen if Cursor decide to be profitable, or maybe to even just break even?

[funnym0nk3y]

If past predicts the future people will drop it once it is in Musks hands. And as a token reseller that revenue is not that impressive.

[mdavid626]

Is that profits or revenue? :-)

[1270018080]

Hasn't cursor's revenue declined? I think they already peaked.

[turtlesdown11]

revenue ≠ future cashflows

[wayeq]

> What are they after for here? Customer base? Talent?

users

[game_the0ry]

And IP

[pietz]

It's a crazy number especially since Cursor feels kinda dead. Few thoughts from the other side:

- xAI needs the coding related data to compete with Claude Code and Codex

- Recent progress with Composer 2.5 seems promising given the size

- The may get a comeback on the smaller than Enterprise battle field now that the other two got so expensive

- The way that Elon set up this entire process was quite genius. They locked in this option before, and now after the gains through the IPO, it feels almost like a discount, lol

[BoumTAC]

Compose 2.5 is the default model in Grok Build. And it's quite incredible. It's comparable to Opus 4.7 but faster and incredibly cheaper .

[zander_jiang]

I wonder what happens to fireworks ai, who provided the infra to train and serve composer 2, cursor was their largest customer, and they're probably loosing it.

[datsci_est_2015]

I could see it being a talent / first mover acquisition. I’m bullish on harnesses, but I think there’s still a very long road to get to something that is stable and relatively optimal - harness user experience is pretty trash tier right now imo.

My hot take is that it will probably be like the OS landscape:

  - Some established enterprise option (Windows)
  - Quality secondary option for professionals (OS X)
  - Super users / nerds / tinkerers (Unix flavors)

[justinai6]

It’s the coding, prompting, training data aligned w harness and ultimately usage of the user base.

[hagbarth]

Well. $60b in bloated stock is probably much better than the $10b cash penalty for not going through with the deal.

[turtlesdown11]

... you could just sell $10b in the bloated stock, and still have $50b of bloated stock to sell

[dubeye]

shocked that an engineer would not mention user numbers or revenue growth in their analysis

[ArtificlObstcl]

Usage data.

[chris_money202]

Exactly that is the current value, although not sure if its worth 60B

[827a]

You clearly have not used Cursor lately. It’s substantially more than all that. It’s not a VSCode extension anymore.