[ElProlactin]

> Complicated for working class Japanese people.

It's complicated from a cultural perspective because Japanese are fiercely proud and protective of their culture and, many would argue, xenophobic.

It is not complicated from an economic perspective. There simply aren't enough working-age Japanese to fill these roles.

As Japan ages, it is already struggling to maintain critical services, such as caretaking for the elderly. Without immigration, it would eventually face economy-stopping labor shortages.

The tension is between Japan's demographic reality and economic needs, and its idealistic cultural/religious/historical beliefs.

You cannot maintain the world's fifth-largest economy with a population that has lost 3 million people in the past 5 years that is losing somewhere between 250-500,000 working age people a year and will have more than 40% of its population over 60 by 2030.

And, I would argue, you cannot maintain a belief system structured around the ideas of genetic, cultural and historical superiority when you've had a fertility rate below the replacement rate since 1974.

This doesn't mean that Japan should open the gates to unchecked immigration (there are practical reasons it can't anyway) but having spent a good deal of time there I feel OK to say: Japan is dying and people need to accept it so that they can address it.

[aurareturn]

It isn’t hard to get. Working class do not think a declining population is bad for themselves. They’re probably right. It’s bad for businesses and government though.

[ElProlactin]

> Working class do not think a declining population is bad for themselves.

A declining population is objectively bad for working-class Japanese. The key reasons:

1. Labor shortages. Manufacturing, education, food processing, transportation and healthcare cannot find enough workers, putting immense strain on exports, domestic supplies, access to services and overall quality of life.

2. Domestic consumption. Obviously, this engine of any advanced economy declines as population ages and declines. This makes economic growth all but impossible to achieve and reduces opportunities for working age Japanese.

3. Pension and healthcare. Young workers support the state safety net. When young people have to support too many old people, the young people carry an unbelievable financial burden that prevents them from getting ahead. In Japan, the old age dependency ratio is crazy high. It's like 50 dependents for every 100 workers, one of the highest ratios in the world. For comparison, in the US, you have roughly 25-30 dependents for every 100 workers.

4. Rural death. Entire municipalities all over Japan are basically going extinct as their populations die off and the young people left behind move to the cities. There are over 9 million vacant homes in Japan now. Obviously, this phenomenon places financial strain on communities, who then need more support from the central government. And the biggest issue is that eventually the infrastructure (roads, rail, hospitals, retail, etc.) in these areas basically dies.

Average people might not think too deeply about this topic, might not educate themselves about it, and might even fall victim to propaganda that preys on their angst and fears. But the economic and societal impacts of a collapsing population are well-established. There is nothing good for Japan about its collapsing population, which is why the government is treating it like an existential emergency and taking pretty extreme action. The question is whether the action is too late and not extreme enough.