[JumpCrisscross]

> Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario

Ceteris paribus, those figures imply a $45bn loss this year, $90bn loss next year and $110bn loss in 2028 before breakeven in 2029.

That's $250bn of losses to be financed from 2026 onwards. (They raised ~$120bn, $25bn up front and the rest based on milestones. So Another ~$125bn uncovered.) That only works if OpenAI stays a fundraising darling. So not a doomsday sceanario. But perilous, and dependent on short-term trends extending into long-term curves.

[Schiendelman]

You're adding absolute dollars rather than using percentages - that usually isn't how that works.

[JumpCrisscross]

> rather than using percentages

Not really.

Fractions (7/2), ratios (3.5x) and percentages (+250%) are fundamentally mathematically identical.

There are a lot of problems with this back-of-the-envelope estimate, but I’m not sure the one I understand you presenting is one of them.

[curio_Pol_curio]

? https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-burned-3-7-bi... ?

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/index-startup-ornn-...

[Schiendelman]

Any of those three would be fine. They did not use any of them. They simply used absolute dollars.

[eiiee]

Hahaha what a bozo.

Of course you don’t use percentages when the magnitude of the numbers are so high.