[MrScruff]

I’m normally comparing frontier open/cheap models against frontier closed source. I use deepseek/glm regularly, they’re fine and you can get real work done with them but it’s super obvious when you switch back to opus or even sonnet. A 3B active param MoE model is not comparable.

[lambda]

Yeah. I was pointing out that local 3b active models outperform frontier models from a year ago.

Will this trend continue? Who knows. Both the frontier and local model will probably continue to get better. Which one will hit the top of the S-curve first? Hard to say, really. But what you can do right now locally is better than what you could do a year ago on the frontier, and lots of people were already using it pretty heavily a year ago.

Hoever, November is when most folks agree that the frontier models got good enough for much of their work. Local models aren't quite there yet (where by "local" I mean "can run at reasonable speed and quant on a system less that $10,000 with today's RAM and GPU prices"). The biggest open weights models are getting there, but those require something like an 8x H100 server to reasonably run.

It's likely that there will always be a gap between frontier and local if you're comparing models at the same time, you can just do a lot more with terabytes of HBM than gigabytes of DDR. But will local models get good enough to be usable for useful work? For many folks, they already are.

[shimman]

Agreed, but at their current prices Deepseek + GLM are clear winners in my book. This weekend I spent $5 between the two where as I'd probably have to pay $20-30 to Anthropic (and that's still with the massive VC subsidies).

For web development (or anything else with an extreme amount of training data) it's number one for sure. You can't beat it at its costs. US companies will not be able to compete on a competitive market, which is why they rely on so much US government protection + corporate welfare.