[christkv]

For now I suspect however that the gigantic models are not needed and you will be able to do pretty much what you need in a specific domain with 120b or lower. There is so much trash in the frontier models. I don't need all the world's slam poetry for my coding tasks for example.

[ACCount37]

Wrong, mostly.

Model capability is a function of model size. Raising the bar raises model performance in every domain.

An "idiot savant" model that's overtrained for a specific domain would beat a generalist model of the same size. But scale the generalist up enough, and it'll trounce the specialist. Removing poetry data from a model training mix doesn't give you much - it might even cost you some performance - and "idiot savant" approach of overtraining for a domain has a hard ceiling.

So far, it seems like there's some equivalent of "g factor" in LLMs - a broad "intelligence" value that performance across many diverse domains correlates with. And, as a rule, larger models have more of it.

[everforward]

While I disagree with OP about removing stuff from the model, there’s a valid question about tradeoffs between intelligence and price.

Deepseek Flash is almost certainly wrong more often than Opus or Fable. It also costs like 5% as much.

The question becomes if I run Deepseek in a loop to fix the mistakes it made that Opus/Fable didn’t, can it fix its own bugs in few enough tokens that it’s still cheaper?

So far, the answer seems to be “yes, by a significant margin”. A lot of tasks are simple enough that both Deepseek and Opus or Sonnet can one-shot it, which is a huge cost win for Deepseek. Even on the long tail, it’s usually like 4x the tokens on Deepseek which is still way cheaper than Opus.

There are things that Opus can do that Deepseek just won’t ever really nail, but it happens so infrequently that I just don’t worry. Like most people, most of what I do is the same sort of “3 tier app with a React frontend” that doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out.

[overfeed]

> Wrong, mostly.

> Model capability is a function of model size

Model effectiveness has improved across model sizes. You really should try the latest flash variants more. They have become my default for most tasks except for gnarly high-level planning.

[trollbridge]

Right - the idea that "bigger model = better" might have been true a year ago, but the flash models are extremely effective right now. You simply use them for the tasks they are ideally suited for.

[ACCount37]

"Capability per parameter" is rising, but parameter count remains an advantage. And small models remain bad, because "good" is a rapidly moving target.

A 2026 4B beats 2024 4B, but both are far behind the contemporary frontier. Which makes them bad. There is no such thing as "too much capability" - a "good" model is whatever the current frontier is.

In 2024, a "good" model is one that can be trusted to write a 800 line script. In 2026, it's a model that can be trusted to do gnarly high-level planning and execution both. In 2028, it's going to be something like a model you can point at an extremely involved task, abandon, and have it report back with a "done" in 3 weeks.

[overfeed]

> A 2026 4B beats 2024 4B, but both are far behind the contemporary frontier.

The thing about engineering is you don't just use the biggest bolt on the market on every bridge.

> In 2024, a "good" model is one that can be trusted to write a 800 line script. In 2026, it's a model that can be trusted to do gnarly high-level planning and execution both

This sounds a lot like having a single diamond-head hammer as the only tool in your toolbox. As suggested by the name, flash models are fast - sometimes I want to write the equivalent of fifty 800-line scripts. There is such a thing as good enough.

[ACCount37]

Good enough? That's a lie people tell each other because they lack imagination.

"It's good enough" was said about GPT-4, o1, o3, Opus 4 and more. Guess what happened? Newer models released, people updated their expectations of what LLMs can do, usage got more aggressive, and somehow, GPT-4 went from "good enough" to "obsolete trash".

If you have no imagination, then at least substitute your pattern recognition for it.

The world is hungry for capabilities. There are piles upon piles of tasks that aren't done by LLMs simply because LLMs aren't good enough to do them.

The thing a frontier model gives you is "you don't have to babysit a model to get it to do X", and that X gets more and more impressive release to release.

[overfeed]

I wish you had addressed at least one of arguments in good faith before jumping to insults and countering a strawman argument I didn't make - I never claimed their will be no use for more capable models.

You do your AI-maximalism, and I'll stick to making trade-offs based on the needs of each piece of work.