[ursuscamp]

Iran gained international credibility by adhering strictly to the JCPOA, even long after the Trump admin broke it. I doubt they will squander that by not adhering to whatever deal they negotiate next.

[thunky]

Following the rules got them bombed, so why would they make that mistake again?

[ursuscamp]

It's a good question, but Iran has a new weapon now: The Strait of Hormuz. Maybe that's enough leverage that they retain that they will stop their nuclear program for a while.

[thunky]

The Straight of Hormuz isn't new, though. IIUC Iran did exactly what war gamers would have expected them to do.

[arrrg]

It seems to me that demonstrated leverage actually is different from theoretical leverage. I do think that is a crucial difference.