[ergocoder]

It's the last bump before I liquidate all my stocks. I predict that the crash will come at the end or the beginning of the next president which is likely democrat.

Not that it's democrat's fault but democrat is more disciplined

[LPisGood]

I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning.

Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the capabilities of the strongest research universities will also mean there is probably hell to pay in the medium term.

[ergocoder]

The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. This cannot go on for much longer. I will be parking my money at a safer place

[zahlman]

Time in the market beats timing the market, bears have predicted (large number) out of the last (smaller number) recessions, etc. None of this is novel. "Predicting" a stock crash due to political reasons is effectively just a fancy restatement of anti-those-politics views; and it isn't substantive, especially when the prediction comes with a years-long window.

[cosmicgadget]

You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.

[ergocoder]

Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money.

Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.

[cosmicgadget]

"But my 401k advisor showed me a chart!"

[newaccountman2]

That's like 2.5 years from now--you don't think crash will happen before then?

[ergocoder]

I think it may happen before then. That's why I'm thinking of liquidating it soon-ish. Trump is doing too much crazy things. He cannot prop up the market for that long.

I plan to put most of the money in US t-bill (4 week) to earn 3% for now.

[cosmicgadget]

Check out spring of 2020. Rate cuts and QE if he can get control of the Fed.

[mhb]

And what are you going to do with that money?

[ergocoder]

US t-bill (4w) until the market crashes. For 401K, I'll just move it to money market/bond.

We don't really need to maximize the profits all the time. Not losing the money is good too.