[csallen]

This is pessimistic and cynical. Many millions of people are capable of succeeding if they strive for it, and in doing so making better lives for themselves and others. Hearing words of encouragement, useful advice, and inspirational examples from those who've done it can be tremendously motivating, and is often the difference between trying and not trying. Between "I did it" and "I wish someone had told me it was possible."

[dakiol]

I'm not against inspirational examples. I'm against unrealistic inspirational examples (like PG).

[csallen]

He stated the odds at YC were 30 out of probably 12k founders or so. That's not hyper unrealistic. And that's just for ~billionaire status. Much higher odds for 7-, 8-, and 9-figure outcomes. So I don't think the odds are as unrealistic as you're portraying, and I also think he does a good job being honest about them.

By comparison, many people out there are trying to get rich playing the lottery, gambling on stocks, etc., which often have far less likely odds. Is it not better for them to hear about what PG is preaching?

[dakiol]

The topic here is: how to earn a billion dollars.

There are less than ~5K billionaries in the entire world. Not quite like winning the lottery sure, but still unrealistic for the majority of people.

[csallen]

You're taking the topic so literally that it's disingenuous. For some reason you're acting as if PG's advice doesn't apply to achieving success short of $1B, or as if anything short of $1B is unsuccessful, and we both know neither conclusion is true. So I'm confused what point you're trying to make, exactly.

[knorker]

> This is pessimistic and cynical. Many millions of people are capable of succeeding if they strive for it,

How many is "many"? If you meant 100 million people, then that's still just 1.2%.

And in my opinion to claim that 100 million people have the opportunity to become a billionaire is laughable. Even if you're a super genius and you do everything right, there are just WAAAY too many happy accidents (opportunities) or just lack of unfortunate events stopping you.

Like you could be born to the best parents, who can afford the best school, growing up with the best opportunity business partners, and you work your ass off and are very smart… and then there's STILL a 20% chance you're in a car accident before the age of 30[1], potentially derailing your whole trajectory.

So car accidents ALONE could take away the chance for 20% of people. Not saying a car injury is terrible, but it could be sufficient to derail the billionaire plan.

That said, you work with what you got. And become a millionaire? Sure, doable. Billionaire? You need to win several lotteries AND have skill & contentiousness, I'm sorry let's not pretend otherwise.

[1] 2.44 million people injured in traffic in the US every year (2023 data, and US traffic injury and death is skyrocketing UPWARDS thanks to the car lobby's light truck loophole, while everywhere else in the world traffic deaths are going WAY down).

[csallen]

I didn't say millions of people are capable of becoming a billionaire. I said millions of people are capable of becoming successful. Both of you are reading into the "billionaire" part of PG's essay too literally, as if it's saying the only yard stick for success is billionaire status.

[knorker]

Alright, so you're not saying it.

But PG is literally addressing the billionaire question. He's literally replying to a statement about billionaires specifically.

We're not reading too much into it.

Like I said, millionaire sure. (You could see it as another word for "successful"). Billionaire? Absolutely not, and it just sounds like you and PG are trying to change the subject, because the actual topic can't be refuted.

Or PG is so disconnected from reality that he's intentionally directly saying "I earned billions".

[csallen]

Go read the last paragraph of his essay. He's talking about becoming rich. He's not literally saying that billionaire is the only line that matches. Again, you're reading into this too literally. Do you genuinely think that PG would say that making less than a billion dollars is not successful? He's obviously using the "billion" yardstick as a rhetorical device.

[knorker]

So it's a cheap dig at a politician he doesn't like, by misrepresenting and basically mocking her?

Yeah that's not better.

I'm not an AOC fan, but wow that makes PG an ugly political hack, not a clever writer.

There's no way to spin this that makes PG look good.

[csallen]

In what way was she misrepresented? In what way is PG mocking her? I don't follow. She really does believe that you can't earn a billion dollars, and that there are no ethical billionaires. And that sentiment is echoed by many millions, most of whom I would wager know very little about the economics and mechanisms behind creating wealth.

[hackable_sand]

Low-key one of the most fucked up comments I've read

[csallen]

Thinking that it's fucked up to say that it's good to inspire people to strive is, itself, fucked up.