[baq]

Immediate revenue impact is basically 0 - nobody cancels their Claude sub because Fable isn’t why they got it in the first place (by nobody I mean like 1% of total users and they’re likely net neutral tokenmaxxers for revenue).

Signal to OpenAI and Google is clear: can’t release too smart models or they get controlled. It follows there is no danger to revenue since other providers are forced to plateau at the same level.

…which puts the whole train the next model business idea a risky proposition since the training can’t ever pay for itself - but USG really wants you to keep training, so guess what happens?

Oh and re China - if you think they’ll release an open Mythos-class model, I have a bridge to sell.

[conradkay]

Seems like estimates are that 70-85% of their revenue comes from API usage/pricing, so some users switching from Opus to Fable for that would've had a big impact

Then there's people switching from GPT 5.5 or upgrading their subscriptions, and Fable being scheduled for removal from subscriptions on the 23rd

[skeptic_ai]

Why China wouldn’t release?

[petra]

Today china can't prevent the world from accessing LLM's so it plays it's current game, to get a good position in it.

But if large parts of the world won't have access to a good llm, keeping the llm private gives them an advantage.