[kopirgan]

Broader point is this: Middle East created oil crisis back in 70s. Since then US economy has grown enormously while it's still using pretty much same amount of oil, imported or otherwise. They shot themselves in their foot. Iran is doing this now, telling the world to avoid Hormuz. They will learn to do that.

China is doing that by blackmailing countries with rare earth.

Answers will be found. Especially as some of finest brains across 2 continents + Japan are very interested in doing it. In the past, China could flood market at right time to make alternatives unviable. But that trick has worn off.

In this context, 92% or even 80% efficiency of permanent magnets is no big deal. It'll not be the answer to every use case but will satisfy many and limit demand.

[coryrc]

I don't know. Europe had the opportunity to make themselves energy independent multiple times; instead they doubled down on Russian oil, and in response to the latest invasion, they instead doubled down on Qatar natural gas...

Germany spent enough on solar to have nuclear power for winter heating and instead they get nearly nothing from it when energy (note I said Energy not Electricity) demand is the highest: winter heating.

Now, if they had put that solar in North Africa and ran cables, sure, but they didn't. Or if they did Drake's landing solar storage, that would also work. But they spent a fortune only to still be completely dependent on fossil fuels and are destroying the economic base because of the cost.

[jfengel]

In the long term solutions will be found, but in the short term they can gain an enormous bargaining chip. If food prices double because we've burnt the last drop from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the administration will give them just about anything they want to avoid utter political destruction.

The game theoretic definition of a threat is something that harms you, but harms them so much that they will avoid forcing you to trigger the threat. It's a different matrix from the Prisoner's Dilemma, but still leaves you guessing about the personality of your opponent. The personality of Iran seems reasonably consistent. The US, less so.

[kopirgan]

Yeah that is looking at it from US side. If you were Iranian, cutting nose to spite face looks like a bad deal, only as Iranian you have no say in it. As with virus, the ones that survive are the ones that dont cause too much damage and learn to live with adversary. Ebola will never spread as bad as COVID if it kills everyone it touches. Unless it too evolves into gentler version.