[madrox]

I wouldn't say so. Once upon a time, a PlayStation 2 was too powerful to export: https://www.pcmag.com/news/20-years-later-how-concerns-about...

ChatGPT 2 was once too powerful to release.

AI has been moving faster than culture and thinking around it. Once we've adapted to what these models can do we'll relax a little, and then a new stepwise improvement will start it all over again. It always goes this way.

[marcus_holmes]

The ban on exporting cryptography in the 90's lasted for years, and got to be a major pain in the arse for the entire web industry in its early years. The US govt can be very stubborn about this stuff when it wants to be.

[OtomotO]

In the late 90s the US was in a position of power that it no longer holds.

It had just one the cold war and China wasn't even a shadow of what it is now.

[maccard]

Almost all of the major tech companies are either HQ'ed in the US or have a very significant US entity, and make up probably about half of the S&P500. The US's power has changed and is actively changing, but the US still holds all the cards in 2026.

[stingraycharles]

> the US still holds all the cards in 2026

So, the last time an AI-related export control was imposed - NVidia chips deemed to be "too powerful" - how do you think that will work out? If the US is holding all the cards, why is China now refusing their chips?

Don't you think these types of restrictions will weaken rather than empower the US?

[maccard]

> Don't you think these types of restrictions will weaken rather than empower the US?

I do. But I think the US is currently in a position of strength that they are continually undermining.

[stingraycharles]

They're undermining their position of strength precisely by using these types of restrictions. That's the point I'm trying to make.

[sublinear]

I think culture moves a lot faster than you believe.

The broader discussion about AI and model capabilities died a couple of years ago precisely because it's so underwhelming now. People did adapt. Startups stopped hiring just to get to MVP. Coding sweatshops had huge layoffs and stopped overhiring. The corporate world got better tools for collaborations and meetings. Accessibility tools are still bad, but improving. I would argue that the a11y topic is still very ripe to be the next big thing as it continues to converge with better UI/UX instead of being an afterthought.

The layperson and tech professional alike otherwise agreed that this is a vehicle for blame game, grift, disinformation, etc. This is where all the pushback is and the topic at hand. People aren't dumb. The only people worried about "AI" are the ones who bet too big on it.

[manbart]

For a laugh, search for "p(doom)" (remember that?) and read some articles from 2023