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by gamblor956 6 days ago
TLDR: due to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. is exporting most of the oil that used to fill these tanks. If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again, but in the case of the latter there are unpleasant political ramifications for Trump and his supporters so they'd rather see 100% inflation instead.
1 comments
vannevar 6 days ago
>If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again...

Not quite. Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again. So even if it ends tomorrow, we may still have to ban oil exports for some time. I don't think there are any political ramifications for Trump---he has complete control over what used to be the Republican Party, and banning exports would probably actually help him with undecideds. But he will get heat from his sponsors and handlers in the oil industry. Policy-wise, Trump is a blank sheet of paper, continuously filled in by anyone in a position of power who flatters or bribes him. And the oil industry has been a major patron for him.

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RetroTechie 6 days ago
> Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again.

This is what most people seem to be missing. A price spike is pretty much inevitable @ this point. Regardless of Iran-US deal or not.

How high the spike(s)? How long? How elastic is world's demand in near-future, as prices spike? We'll find out.

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FireBeyond 6 days ago
And as Trump says, "We'll make millions."

He doesn't mean you and I, of course, or the US as a whole. Hell, he barely means Big Oil. We, for Trump = "me, my family and my friends".

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gamblor956 5 days ago
Yes, if you mean "fill up" as in full it will take a few months. These tanks are massive and there are a lot of them.

But it will only take a few days before the tanks start filling up again. A lot of oil runs through this facility: most of the U.S. production excluding the West Coast. They're only running dry right now because other countries are buying expensive U.S. oil on the spot market because they can't get the (cheaper) Middle East oil they already have long-term contracts for. Once the conflict ends, the only lag time for them to switch away from U.S. oil is the time it takes for the tankers to get to their destinations, which is measured in days and weeks, not months.

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vannevar 4 days ago
>...which is measured in days and weeks, not months.

There are multiple issues that will force a lag of at least a couple of months. First, the issue of the mines that have been reported. Second, the tanker owners will want to be quite sure hostilities aren't going to erupt again. Third, while tankers that are trapped will leave, there will be a major lag while tankers that have been moved to other parts of the world get redirected back to the Strait to fill up. It will indeed be months before there is enough oil flowing to start retaining reserves again. It isn't like the state of shipping was frozen the day the war started and will unfreeze as soon as the ink is dry on the new cease-fire deal.

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