[TrackerFF]

The stock, and subsequently the stock market, is so detached from reality. For the life of me, I can’t understand why investors will literally put a 100x premium on Musk, and the things he touches. I feel like I’m living in some alternative universe.

[Dig1t]

Have you watched a Starship launch? The more I understand the incredible feats of engineering they are performing the more bullish I become.

[newaccountman2]

It doesn't make money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X6YzlY_8tM

[Dig1t]

Starship is still in development. Do you think the next generation of the iPhone is a waste of time because it doesn't make money yet?

The stock price reflects the potential of the business in the future as well as its current concrete value.

[tonyhart7]

"It doesn't make money."

if that's the reason, why people invest in amazon then since Amazon literally need 20 years for that company to be profitable

because they are not targeting dividend that's why, they expect the exponential growth by re-investing profit to grow the business at scale

we literally live in YC subs where (almost)every startup isn't profitable either but VC still invest, I wonder why you write this

[tastyface]

Starship and anything space related is like 5% of the valuation.

[TrackerFF]

Space X is first and foremost being valued on their AI data centers.

[iancmceachern]

Which make no physics sense

[Dig1t]

Scott Manley has a great video breaking down the physics and it absolutely works:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FlQYU3m1e80

[iancmceachern]

I am a mechanical engineer, I have a multi decade career doing exactly these kinds of thermal analysis.

This video is basically saying that cooking data centers in space is possible. It is.

The question is if it's better, in any way, to putting them on earth. It isn't.

The common misconception I see is that people think that space is cold like Antarctica is cold. It isn't. Antarctica is cold because there is lots of matter, very cold. Space is cold because there is no matter. No matter to put the heat into and take it away.

It's the same reason that a hard boiled egg takes minutes to cook in water, but 30 to cook in the oven. Now put it in a vacuum insulated thermos and see how long it takes to cook.

Radiation is the weakest of the three heat transfer modes. So much so that in engineering school we often cross it off as negligible compared to the other two (convection and conduction).

Do the heat transfer math yourself, let us know what you find.

One of the comments on the YouTube video you linked says it best. " The only reason to do this is if you have a company who's business is to get things into space".

[Dig1t]

You obviously didn’t watch the video, he literally does the heat transfer math using radiation only, it works just fine.

Instead of just stating “it won’t work” why don’t you actually do the calculation yourself and show why it won’t work?

Yes they have an incentive to put things in space, but it actually is a decent idea if they can execute on it the same way they did with Starlink. There’s huge demand for compute, many data center projects on earth are being scuttled because of NIMBYs and lack of power, there are no NIMBYs in space and a sun synchronous orbit means you can power them without batteries.

[yubblegum]

Once the rich move up to orbit it will make perfect sense.

[kamaal]

This.

The real profits will eventually come from selling a McMansion on Elysium.

[reaperducer]

The more I understand the incredible feats of engineering they are performing the more bullish I become.

You know he's not going to sleep with you, right?

[newaccountman2]

There is no reason to be surprised investors aren't always that rational, though it is weird how extra giddy they are to simp for Musk in particular.

Company literally does not make money, and his other major company is getting dumpstered in its market too.

[legitster]

SpaceX had this similar mystique to where owning a private share was something rich people bragged about like having a rare Lamborghini.

A lot of these modern bubble stocks are underpinned by a bunch of intangible collectibility reasons that realistically only exist because of a huge cash glut in the US stock market.

Maybe it goes on for a long time, but realistically as baby boomers start drawing down on their retirement portfolios and/or dying there's reason to believe money will start leaving the markets in the next 20ish years.

[rendang]

If you're right, that's great news for you, as you can make tons of money buying Spacex puts

[cosmicgadget]

If the market is detached from reality then you very much cannot. It's like you weren't even listening.

[echoangle]

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

- John Maynard Keynes

[eudamoniac]

This quote refers to shorting; it's not applicable to every bear position anyone ever attempts to take. You won't go insolvent buying puts.

[echoangle]

You won’t go insolvent but you’ll consistently lose money every time the stock doesn’t go down.

[eudamoniac]

Yep, and if you buy stocks you'll consistently lose money when the stock doesn't go up.

[echoangle]

Only in opportunity cost, if you buy puts you actually lose dollars.

[moralestapia]

What a great quote man. First time I read something like this. And thanks for crediting the author, now I can go learn more about him.

[benrutter]

Another great, if not so relevant quote from JMK:

> My only regret in life, is that I did not drink more champagne

[UncleMeat]

Not if people continue to have the 100x premium on Musk. Puts only make sense if the market returns to rationality.

[__patchbit__]

SpaceX will cocoon the planet with next level new accelerated technology the way baseload grid electricity supply took 300 years to achieve.

[AnimalMuppet]

In a word, baloney.

What, exactly, is the "next level new accelerated technology"? That's a lot of hype-y buzzwords, but what does it mean? What's the actual technology?

Starlink? I mean, we already have internet. Is Starlink that much better, to deserve this glowing description?

Or is it some other tech? If so, what is it?

If you can write that glowingly, can you put some substance behind it? Or is it just hype?