[moocow01]

I'd agree that while I really dont have a full picture of the economics of the current startup atmosphere (does anyone?), the culture right now is a pretty strong indicator to me that things are going to stagnate or trend down. IMHO there is a pretty toxic layer of culture that has built up from all the hype that for the most part is adding negative value. I dont really give a crap if people think it fits their definition of a "bubble" or not - if the focus is not on providing tangible value to others, the market will eventually figure it out and value it appropriately. I think there is a large and growing segment of startups that view their business as existing to just bring value to themselves (although will obviously never be admitted) - business plans that stop at getting funding, comfy office suites, parties, etc. Part of this is getting driven by a segment of newly inspired newcomers that view startups as essentially just a cool atmosphere where they could get rich rather than what startups really should be to be successful ... a slog through utter absolute shit to try to do something that really matters to the people involved.

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I agree with many of the points being made but I don't believe that we're actually in a bubble. Speaking to serial founders and investors it's actually a much tougher time to raise money right now than six months ago. There was no pop, just a decrease in the market. In fact overall venture capital investments didn't rise significantly over the supposed 2010 - 2011 bubble. It also costs less today so it's tough to compare with the millions being raised by most startups in 1999. Which leads one to believe that many are talking but few are executing on this talk.

If you actually want to build something valuable for the long term. Now is the perfect time to start a company. If you want to raise a seed round and sell fast then you're probably too late or will be shortly.