[OgsyedIE]

Odd to see no mention of the US government's rationale for intervening over their continuing to leave a vaguely weak enemy alone as past administrations have: the US believes that inhibiting Chinese covert activity (real or imagined) has risen in necessity to now outbid the cost of invasion.

This could have only come to pass because the administration has faith in the pessimistic forecasts for peace between Beijing and Washington. If so few private sector forecasters thought Tariffs and Hormuz were important black swans to consider, how can we give the forecasts of no US-China conflict as much credence as we do?

Idk if Hn is the place for my making such remarks, however, as the commentariat has gotten much less confident in the value of sober political analysis than before.