[Grombobulous]

It will happen. My guess is that Canada is BYD’s pilot into the US. They have very similar buyer characteristics and the Canadian tariff deal allows them to enter the market without taking the risks of local factories.

It won’t take much to get BYD access to the US. It’s a two-step process:

- Toss a million bucks at Trump or wait for a Democratic administration

- Build a plant in Alabama/Tennessee/South Carolina/Georgia

That’s literally all it takes.

[galangalalgol]

A million? 100M only gets you an ev advertisement on the Whitehouse lawn. It will need to be something more like Saudi Arabia's investment in ivanka, i mean the affinity group. 25M a year to his son in law gets your phone calls answered when you feel like Iran is acting up too much.

I am not as optimistic. If that doesn't happen the only candidate likely to let china do as they wilt is aoc. Vance would happily start ww3 with them. Rubio/newsome/shapiro etc will all keep the full pressure of all allies in them, potentially kicking them out of places they already sell.

[gpm]

> Rubio/newsome/shapiro etc will all keep the full pressure of all allies in them, potentially kicking them out of places they already sell.

I sincerely doubt the US is capable of this. Trump has lit your soft power on fire. Trying to get people to give up a superior and cheaper product is an extremely large ask.

[galangalalgol]

It is less about the us being capable of it, than the us getting out of the way. Japan, India, and SK all have vested interests in preventing further concentration of Chinese mercantilist power. Saying an establishment us president would focus the fury and might of allies is a bit outdated I agree. SK survived a coup, Piland is working on it. Hungary might even pull it off. Maybe the us will right the ship as well vs overcorrect into a different sort of populist autocrat. But even then as you say; That soft power went up in flames.

[bluGill]

The leaders there know that China isn't exactly a friend of liberal western democracy. They have won the current round of propoganda, but that doesn't mean they are anyone's friend either.

[gpm]

> They have won the current round of propoganda

No, they have won the current round of foreign relations. Threats to invade numerous allies. Blatant war crimes like murdering random people on boats. Violating established and signed trade deals left right and centre. Openly soliciting and accepting bribes. Kidnapping foreign countries citizens and holding them in inhumane camps. None of this is a matter of "propaganda" - it's a matter of actual actions the US is taking.

> The leaders there know that China isn't exactly a friend of liberal western democracy.

Indeed, but this has never been a prerequisite for trade with liberal western democracies. See for example the gulf monarchies we trade with.

It is pretty much a prerequisite for extraordinary actions like successfully asking liberal western democracies to restrict trade though, and the US no longer meets it...

[bluGill]

> They have won the current round of foreign relations.

Which is to say Trump failed at the current round of propaganda. If he had won this round you would excuse all those things.

Being a friend of liberal western democracies is not a requirement for trade. However it does influence how trade happens.

>restrict trade though, and the US no longer meets it...

Again, the US lost the current round of propaganda.

[gpm]

> Which is to say Trump failed at the current round of propaganda.

No, it really isn't. "Propaganda" merely refers to communication intended to influence. Trump failed when it came down to actual actions, not just communication. And when he failed in communication it was actual diplomacy meant to come to agreements, not merely the words meant to influence minds.

Propaganda is the least of the USes problems right now.

[zulux]

Agreed!

The CCP still hasn't figured out that we'll take their money and still hate them.

Western civilization has been sneaky and duplicitous for centuries, and we're good at it.

[mjmsmith]

Still, if you're going to buy a car from an enemy of liberal western democracy, you might as well buy BYD over Tesla.

[arjie]

The soft power that people talk about yielded instantly when used. Trump’s foreign policy has been fairly scatter shot and foolish but it has only revealed that soft power is only soft. When you attempt to exercise it you find nothing there.

The other world powers are exercising their will directly through power as power: no amount of Hollywood or America Is The Good Guy belief ever bought America a trade deal or sanction power.

The only power that America has is her Navy and the nuclear weapons under the seas. Power that cannot be summoned is not power. The illusion that it is suited American allies and her wider array of beneficiaries because it allowed them to call upon the world hegemon for aid. But America is not that sole superpower anymore so it is useful to her to know the illusion for what it is: an illusion.

[gpm]

Yeah... that's just not the case. The US routinely successfully exercised its soft power prior to Trump 2.0. For example it's why this news article even exists - the US (under Biden) exercised its soft power to get Canada to effectively ban Chinese EVs - otherwise they would already be here.

[arjie]

The news article is the news article but the reality is Canada operated under the threat of tariffs and now they have unconditional tariffs. Threatening someone with something lets you extract concessions. Using the threat removes the ability and makes it just math. China’s tariffs are more damaging than the US’s and are releasable so Canada makes deals with them.

It’s more a story of hard power than soft power since economic damage ultimately led the way.

[eunos]

Nope the congressfolks from Ohio and Michigan would never allows that

[wombat-man]

Idk we have a lot of protectionism around vehicle sales in the US already. I don't think it'll be easy but it could happen.

[pjc50]

I suspect America will continue to be weird about China until one of three things happens:

- a new Great Power enemy is selected; it would make sense for this to be Russia, but India is also a candidate

- some sort of face-saving moral victory is achieved which allows the US to continue feeling superior and not threatened by China's capability (unclear what this might look like)

- Xi dies and his replacement launches a relationship reset

[eunos]

> Xi dies and his replacement launches a relationship reset

Among all Chinese leaders from the past and likely to the near future, Xi Jinping is the warmest towards US. He cherished his short stay in Iowa and his daughter graduated from Harvard. I dont think future leaders will share that feeling.

[red-iron-pine]

none of those points matter so long as Taiwan is a discussion point