[oudlys]

>"On unbounded measures, growth is exponential"

Maybe. There was a great comment in the thread on Fable 5 yesterday about benchmark comparisons between Fable and the latest opus models. here it is: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48464600.

You could be right, but this is the most direct benchmark comparison I could find and it's not that strong.

>the "destroying value" conclusion flips sign on an assumed 15% baseline rework rate. The report's most direct metric is +16% merged PRs per dev.

I discuss this directly in my analysis. There's also an 860% code churn increase ratio. You only need 9% of that to be allocated to wasteful rework to drive throughput flat to the 15% rework baseline. Not to an assumed ideal state where there was no rework.

But even if it were not true, a 16% throughput improvement is pretty weak given the investment - especially given the direct evidence of quality degradation. IMO.

I appreciate you reading my stuff and taking the data seriously. Thank you.

[andrekandre]

  > But even if it were not true, a 16% throughput improvement is pretty weak given the investment - especially given the direct evidence of quality degradation. IMO.

n=1 but at $JOB we have throughput quotas now, and what is happening is that teams are just finding lots of busywork (renaming things, gardening of ai .md files, rewriting uis etc) and also dividing prs into smaller chunks to match the quotas... so even "throughout increase" doesn't say much if its not for improving the customer outcome (ime anyways)

[oudlys]

Productivity != value.

Thanks for the story.