[reducesuffering]

It's denialism, same as climate change, the subconscious fear to really grapple with the actual "what if" alternative scenario. Anthropic are true believers. They got to $1T in 5 years by being exceptionally smart and ahead of the curve here. Meanwhile HN just continually devolves into reactionary cynicism. "must be marketing, they just want to be rich, impossible AI advances much further." Meanwhile at every step of the way, Anthropic and X-riskers / "doomers" are vindicated in their correct predictive beliefs. We're headed to a future far dangerous than nukes very soon. We're in an arms race to detonate one 100x the size

[snaking0776]

I don’t really think it has to do with general denial in this case. I think he’s likely right in that pushback against datacenters is partially the release of angst over the threats which these models pose but in an indirect fashion since power is so unevenly distributed that local political organizing is the only real mechanism for people to act through. I think everyone feels nervous about these tools. People are scared of autonomous weapons, hackers using agents, and any of the other present issues that already exist. I think some of the pushback that comes in these threads is the fact that people like Dario are so focused on the long-term view that they suppress all immediate threats which already exist. You don’t need to argue about exponential growth or “AI being better than humans at everything” to want to better regulate this technology.

I would argue the best way to safeguard against long-term threats is to start by focusing on the issues that already exist. If you can offset the health risks of local datacenters or issues of unequal distribution of wealth by creating a more equal society right now then you’re already on the path to handling these long term issues. To me, this distant focus only distracts from the already present issues and conceals effective policy in this moment. We do need to safeguard against AI risk and it’s already here. Don’t even get me started on the havoc which recommendation systems have caused in society in the last 15 years which we still don’t call AI because it doesn’t speak.

Tl;Dr: These essays can feel disingenuous because:

1) AI risk is already present without exponential growth. The exponential growth argument often feels like a distraction from the fixes we could put in to fix the current issues that are already here.

2) The people stating this argument often have billions of dollars to gain if it comes true. While they may be altruistic, I also don’t see them doing all that much to fix the issues that people are already claiming exist and instead continue onwards on their path by justifying that they are the only ones responsible enough to handle it if the super intelligence does arrive. By continuing down that path, if that day ever does arrive they’ll have ensured the existence of a system which is unable to handle it.