[RetroTechie]

"Major General Brian Nissen, commander of NATO forces in the Baltic states and Poland, said that as long as Russia remains tied down in Ukraine, the immediate military threat is low, but warned that the situation could change rapidly if there is a pause in the fighting."

That's mostly a theoretic scenario imho:

Suppose there's a cease-fire, and Russia moves a mass of its troops near the Baltic states (to "poke" those, or worse).

What would stop Ukraine @ that point from grabbing the opportunity & regain Russia-occupied territory?

In short: those Russian troops aren't moving until there's a durable end to the war. Which Putin doesn't seem to want.

I suspect it's a matter of time before Russia's economy and/or its leadership cracks. At which point things will happen fast. And replacement Russian leadership probably won't have appetite to continue the war (or go dance with NATO).

[rasz]

>What would stop Ukraine

Lack of man power.