[whiplash451]

> The moat looks deep today but it's going to become more shallow every year.

Unless the frontier labs start nerfing their models, which is exactly what seems to be happening.

The counter-point to your argument is a future where less and less un-nerfed open-source frontier models exist. Sure, China/Meta might keep commoditizing their complement by releasing un-nerfed models, but these come with their own limitations too.

I am worried that the door to great open-source frontier models might be closing by the day now.

[shaky-carrousel]

A nerfed model is a useless model which makes the moat shallower, not deeper.

[whiplash451]

Not if the model is part of a broader product that happens to be very useful/relevant to private companies willing to pay a lot for it (e.g. a coding agent that can do many things but won't help you build a frontier LLM model).

My intuition is that Claude and the likes are going gung-ho after this, along all the verticals that will generate money without threatening their moat.