[knorker]

> the establishment position in the EU is that Trump is an outlier and that relations will normalize once he is removed from power

Is it? This is not entirely clear. And if it seemed the case, it's increasingly not looking realistic. It won't fully go back to normal, now that it's clear that the US is one election away from not only backing away from commitments, but itself threatening invasion of supposed allies.

A defense partner that sometimes announces that it's no longer an ally isn't really a defense partner, since The Enemy has the choice of when to attack and an understanding of game theory.

And as a reliable trading partner the US apparently has very poor guardrails for suddenly not honoring deals and established norms.

Turns out that the only checks&balances in the US political system is impeachment (which, as we know, is a political and not judicial process), and it's apparently impotent to protect against a rogue executive branch.

"This era could see the alliance seriously weakened – or irreparably changed" from the EU Parliament report "The Near-term Future of the Transatlantic Relationship". There's also https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2026/0...

[marcyb5st]

Yeah I agree. As the saying goes: trust is built in drops and lost in buckets. A lot of time needs to pass while the US behaves as a proper ally if they want to go back to the status quo. At least IMHO as this is how I feel as an EU citizen.

[lyu07282]

I'm not saying that is realistic either, I just think EU leadership thinks it will return to "normalcy" after Trump is gone and they are acting accordingly. There has been no break from the US, they are as aligned on foreign policy as always, EU countries are acting to protect US interests, first and foremost, not to restore their own national sovereignty.

The one part that is brilliant maneuvering now is the EU spending increases on their own militaries: You keep the dependency, US military bases and surveillance installations, including US nuclear weapons on your soil (or even more bases like in the case of Greenland), you align on every military intervention under the sun (including Iran, Cuba, Venezuela and the greater Israel project) and you get a perfect pretext to do large scale austerity? It is quite incredible they were able to sell all that with a straight face to the europeans.

You know I would have asked the Europeans if they are okay with another migrant crisis as a result of another US intervention in the middle east, or if they think it's fair they have to spend on their own defense but don't get to seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts if that goes against US interests. The rules based order is dead, might is right has truly won and Europeans can lick the boot that crushes them is the truth.

All of that to say there is a reason EU is falling victim to far-right fascist parties if that's the only alternative to this clusterfuck that is afforded to them.