[oblio]

1. You can't have a model without training. Training is part of the cost. A model trained 5 years ago is borderline useless. Also models cannot be retrained continuously, we do not have the technology (even if we had it, it would just increase the ongoing operational cost).

2. Rephrasing your statement:

  At June 2026 prices, profit margins for all Anthropic models are >10%.

That claim is super defensive. Serving a model can only be done if the model has been built and trained, can't have it any other way. Building it and training it costs lots of money.

Even so, fine, I'll take that bet. Anthropic inference prices are still marginally subsdizided. Once they're public they will hike their API prices several times over the next 24 months. Even that might not save them, because when we take all their expenses into account, they will probably need to raise prices 2-3x compared to their June 2026 prices.

[simianwords]

> Even so, fine, I'll take that bet. Anthropic inference prices are still marginally subsdizided. Once they're public they will hike their API prices several times over the next 24 months. Even that might not save them, because when we take all their expenses into account, they will probably need to raise prices 2-3x compared to their June 2026 prices.

Ok lets state the bet like this: 5 months after their IPO, it will be clear that their API prices still have greater than 10% margin.