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by koe123 2 days ago
I think taking Anthropic or any company in this space at face value is naive at best though. AGI has been 6 months away for years now. Surely anyone can think this through: Anthropic knows what theyre doing with their public facing repositories, they know to make things enabled by their tech seem impressive. I would consider Bun etc. examples of this.

Realistically, nobody intellectually honest really knows.
2 comments
zweifuss 12 hours ago
The disagreement in timelines usually comes from differences in the used definition of AGI. Many who predict a 2026–2028 arrival define it as: 'the ability to perform any purely cognitive task a human can do.' If we stick strictly to that 'cognitive-only' metric, we are arguably very close.
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Qhemlomo 1 day ago
No thats just not true.

Plenty of people say that by 2030 we have AGI, others estimate 10-20 years.

I personally say 5-15 years.

AI 2027 estimates for 2027: "OpenBrain automatescoding"

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OakNinja 1 day ago
Genuine question - What part of ”that” is just not true?
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Qhemlomo 1 day ago
" AGI has been 6 months away for years now."

No one said 2 years ago, that AGI is coming in 2026.

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chadgpt3 1 day ago
You're absolutely right — they said 2025.
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Qhemlomo 17 hours ago
I'm following plenty of people, i never heard 2025
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koe123 1 day ago
Plenty of people say vaccines contain microchips. Research is not linear so this simple linear regression I see people doing regarding capability scaling makes no sense. Nobody can forecast a breakthrough, what makes you believe you can?
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Qhemlomo 20 hours ago
People can interpolate.

But lets be honest, I do not know, thats true.

I ahven't seen technology like this which affects me directly. But from past we know what disruptive technology looks and feels like. The weaving chair/loom disrupted an industry, energy, steam engine, internet.

Now we have the most generic technology an LLM/AI at a time were every major problem was solved:

We have the internet which allows for fast communication, we have very fast hardware, we have a supply chain which can react/act very fast globally and we have the richest companies on our planet investing into this technology unseen amounts of money. We have a local race between the richest companies on the world and a global race between the biggest world powers on our planet.

And we have the smartest people on our planet involved in this too. A lot of peple from academy went to the industry, some gave up their tenure for AI.

It would be very ignorant to assume that all of this can't lead to significant and fast change in our society.

It might not, but its like looking at a huge wildfire 50km away and just going to bed.

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