[derriz]

Have you a source? Using IMF data for GDP per capita PPP, the UK's growth has underperformed that of France, Spain and Italy over the last 10 years. In 2016 the UK's per-capita GDP in international dollars exceeded that of France by approx. $1600, estimates for 2026 are showing France being ahead by about $1000.

[gpt5]

Brexit happened in 2020. GDP/capita change since then:

* UK $40.8k -> $61.1k = +49.5%

* Germany $48.0k -> $65.3k = +36.2%

* France $39.2k -> $52.1k = +32.8%

* Italy $32.0k -> $46.5k = +45.5%

* Spain $27.2k -> $41.6k = +52.9%

[mmarq]

Some effects of Brexit began right after the referendum (eg a business investment flattened since 2016).

2019–2020 are the worst years to start a comparison, because the UK uses a different accounting method to measure the government's contribution to GDP. So, COVID looks much worse in the UK and the recovery looks much better.

[mike_hearn]

Business investment did not flatten after the referendum. Nothing happened after the referendum and the economy continued to grow, with unemployment falling to record lows.

Compare vs the prediction by guys like Portes, the author of the essay: "In the short term, we expect that a vote to leave would result in a significant economic downturn, with unemployment rising by up to 1.7 per cent"

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/002795011623600101

People like the author have no credibility. When they say things like, "Most serious estimates now suggest that UK GDP is several percentage points below where it would otherwise have been" they don't address the fact that "serious" people previously made many failed predictions. Like always in academia, continuous failure is not considered disqualifying for the job.