Ask HN: Prediction for SpaceX IPO?

[bix6]

What is your prediction for the SpaceX IPO? I’m not asking for flame bait or arguing, just your predictions based on some thoughtful reasoning. There’s a lot of noise and hype and complaints but this is specifically for your prediction. What do you anticipate day of? 1 week in? 6 months? 5 years? Will the naysayers be proven right or will the hype machine continue?

[adocomplete]

Day 1 - 7: Significant gains Days 8 - 100: Huge drawdown Days 100+: Who knows - it's already priced so high that in any sane market they would have to execute flawlessly but it's an Elon company and hype alone will keep it afloat regardless of fundamentals.

[m_barsukou]

Yes - looks like it might be really a pump&dump in a short run

[yogibear678142]

Early investors will sell out once the index money hits. No one is going long at current valuation.

After the dump it may be a good time to buy. No doubt conquering space is the next big human endeavour. It's science fiction today but the human race will need to live on spaceships in the future to avoid extinction. As the sun swells to a red giant and engulfs the Earth.

[kha1n3vol3]

SPCX: the company has designed a rolling schedule that drips shares out in stages. Two days after its first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock holds 30% above its IPO price for five of ten consecutive trading days. After that, 7% tranches free up at regular intervals through the first 135 days. A further 28% follows after Q3 earnings, with the remainder releasing at the standard 180-day point.

[...] Elon Musk sits outside this entirely. He and select major backers have committed to a full 366-day lockup. Given that Musk controls the majority of voting power, his agreement to stay locked up for a full year is a meaningful positive signal. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-sto...

I will not be trying to participate in the IPO. I do think waiting until the first 20% unlocks and potentially sold into the market would be reasonable thing to consider. Long term I think this is majorly bullish based only on the xAI infrastructure plays.

From an engineering standpoint, no one else has the technical capability right now to land a rocket and refurbish it and send it back to space with the speed that SpaceX has demonstrated.

[the__alchemist]

I predict I will be opening a moderate short position on it within the first week. HTH!

Are you familiar with https://old.reddit.com/wallstreetbets? It is an invaluable reservoir of knowledge on this matter. It is, in general, a respected source of original research, and speculative commentary on matters bovine and ursine.

[fiftyacorn]

Im more concerned about the implications for index funds - the whole changing of the NASDAQ rules for SpaceX and AI stocks doesnt sit right.

The whole IPO and the AI stock IPO's are designed with valuations to force the trackers to invest in them, while the metrics and businesses still have significant risks and overly high P/E

[austin-cheney]

My prediction is that it will rapidly increase in price out of the gate due only to speculation on a trend. After about two weeks the growth in price will start slowing but not stop. Eventually, possibly after multiple months, there will be a slow slide as the speculative early buyers have a change of heart.

It’s not bitcoin but it’s also not Tesla. Tesla makes products that people use and Tesla actually returns a profit.

[yogibear678142]

Starlink internet is bought and used by normies.

Starlink also has huge military use in modern war. Also the ability to rapidly replace satellites faster than the country you're at war with will be a game changer. fast, cheap, low orbit satellite deployment will determine which AI robot army dominates.

[mikewarot]

This will drive the price of Gold below $4000/ounce, and Silver below $50, and crash most of the rest of the stock market as other things are sold off to buy in at the triple IPOs.

The price will look like Silver has for the past year... extreme volatility.

[segmondy]

lot's of idiots are going to lose their money