[FergusArgyll]

I think we're about to see a big relative drop-off of open models vs closed. I don't think there'll be an open model that competes with Mythos for ~2 years.

Even OpenAI and Google are struggling to get this kind of performance. If the distillation defenses are any good + chip controls prevent China from training massive models, it's over.

[Daishiman]

I think the Chinese have identified this gap and are working overtime on sovereign inference tech including chips.

[__blockcipher__]

They have, but even with the whole CCP backing you you can't just catch up on the chip war overnight. It's going to take time to get their memory and compute industries where they need to be. Meanwhile, barring an invasion of Taiwan, US will have Rubin class models and then whatever the next tier is, within 3 years.

[1attice]

'Barring the invasion of Taiwan' might actually be quite a lot to bar in mid 2026.

My hot take is that it's now or never for Xi, and from the specific things he is reported to have said to the US president at their last meeting lead me to think that he at least knows this is his big chance; whether or not it is taken is the part of the forecast that is opaque to me.

[ricardobeat]

Unluckily for you, they started back in 2014, and had a huge incentive to speed up in 2019 when Trump started restricting exports.

[throwwwll]

Nice fomoing.