[adamredwoods]

Bold claim to say "no signs" based on non-contextual numbers. I think I recall somewhere that most jobs added were in healthcare.

>> The May jobs report reinforced this with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 172,000, confirming that there are no signs of workers being replaced by ChatGPT.

[bwestergard]

The shift toward healthcare employment is a very long running trend driven by the greying of the Baby Boom generation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000101

[paulpauper]

It's not just that. It's anyone who wants to live longer and look younger. Pretty much anyone with the income to afford it. As society becomes wealthier , it means more $ spend on elective procedures and healthcare overall. Wellness clinics are a huge deal now.

[Analemma_]

Yeah I'm starting to think the BLS needs to do "Boomer aging adjustments" to jobs numbers, in a similar manner to how they do "seasonal farming adjustments". Until we get through the Boomer population bulge, healthcare is going to keep adding jobs for quite a while regardless of how the rest of the economy does, but that doesn't necessarily mean the overall labor market is healthy.

If you leave out healthcare, 2025 had massive job losses overall, with Boomer bedpan cleaning bringing the net number up to just above zero.

[sarchertech]

If there is an increased demand in healthcare jobs that will increase wages in healthcare which will pull people out of other jobs and into healthcare in a healthy labor market. I’m not saying whether or not the labor market is healthy, but this adjustment wouldn’t help you figure that out.

Also Gen X isn’t that much smaller than the boomers, and millennials are the largest generation ever. Plus all generations aster the baby boomers have fewer children per couple to take care of them, so demand for healthcare jobs isn’t going to drop anytime soon.

[JumpCrisscross]

> the BLS needs to do "Boomer aging adjustments" to jobs numbers, in a similar manner to how they do "seasonal farming adjustments"

You’re comparing a low-frequency trend with a high-frequency cycle. The latter has lots of data to characterize it. The former may be secular or may be a slow cycle; nobody should be adjusting for it in the base data.

[darth_avocado]

It’s so frustrating that someone with a title of “Chief Economist” puts things like this out there.

Job numbers get revised every month, in a negative direction.

New grad unemployment is high and trending higher.

New jobs exclusively are held up by addition in healthcare industry, almost every other sector is seeing some negative movement.

A lot of job openings, a good chunk of them, are just fake jobs where the company has no intention of filling them.

Pretty bold for someone to ignore all of that and come up with a claim like that.

[dwoldrich]

There are upward and downward revisions this year at least, it seems like a mixed bag with many policies juicing the economy. [1]

Job opportunities differ by state and de-growth hostility to business policies and crony investments. Where I am, layoffs and offshoring continues. I hear new grads are increasingly opting for the skilled trades, which is interesting given they aren't getting use out of their degrees.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2026

[darth_avocado]

> There are upward and downward revisions this year at least, it seems like a mixed bag with many policies juicing the economy

Since Jan 2025, the only two upward revisions have been in the last 3 months. So we’re both correct here. This year (3 months of data), has been a mixed bag. But on a longer time horizon (last 6, 9, 12 months) the revisions have mostly been negative.

[dwoldrich]

Yes, I hope I didn't contradict you, the economy has been shite. Was just trying to leave a positive note on recent developments that will continue, God willing.

[AnimalMuppet]

Well... if you think in terms of a society spending its people on doing various things, spending more people on healthcare could be a good thing. It means we're getting food grown and stuff made with fewer people, so we can spend more people on making sure that everybody lives, and lives healthier.

[paulpauper]

Healthcare is a huge sink if you have the income to afford it . People will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on various protocols to look younger, beat aging, and so on.

[9rx]

Workers taking on new/different roles isn't the same as being replaced. Workers have been taking on new/different roles since at least the advent of agriculture, so that's nothing new. Being replaced would be something new, but the data doesn't support it.